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PEPPERRIDGE NORTH VALLEY'S
7 DAY DETAIL FORECAST FOR NORTH PHOENIX, AZ.


National Weather Service Forecast for: 8 Miles NNE Phoenix AZ
Issued by: National Weather Service Phoenix, AZ
Updated: 6:34 pm MST Jul 15, 2018

North Phoenix Arizona
 
Tonight

Tonight: A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms.  Mostly cloudy, with a low around 80. South wind around 5 mph becoming east after midnight.
Slight Chance
T-storms
Monday

Monday: A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms.  Partly sunny, with a high near 100. East southeast wind around 5 mph becoming west in the afternoon.
Slight Chance
T-storms
Monday
Night
Monday Night: A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms.  Mostly cloudy, with a low around 82. West northwest wind around 5 mph becoming east after midnight.
Chance
T-storms
Tuesday

Tuesday: A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms.  Mostly sunny, with a high near 102. East southeast wind around 5 mph becoming west in the afternoon.
Slight Chance
T-storms
Tuesday
Night
Tuesday Night: A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms.  Mostly cloudy, with a low around 81. West wind around 5 mph becoming south after midnight.
Slight Chance
T-storms
Wednesday

Wednesday: A 10 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms.  Mostly sunny, with a high near 102. West wind around 5 mph.
Slight Chance
T-storms
Wednesday
Night
Wednesday Night: A 10 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms.  Partly cloudy, with a low around 82. West southwest wind around 5 mph.
Slight Chance
T-storms
Thursday

Thursday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 104. West southwest wind around 5 mph.
Mostly Sunny
Thursday
Night
Thursday Night: A 10 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms.  Mostly cloudy, with a low around 82. West wind around 5 mph.
Slight Chance
T-storms

Lo 80 °F

Hi 100 °F

Lo 82 °F

Hi 102 °F

Lo 81 °F

Hi 102 °F

Lo 82 °F

Hi 104 °F

Lo 82 °F


Air Quality Alert
 

Tonight
 
A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 80. South wind around 5 mph becoming east after midnight.
Monday
 
A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, with a high near 100. East southeast wind around 5 mph becoming west in the afternoon.
Monday Night
 
A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 82. West northwest wind around 5 mph becoming east after midnight.
Tuesday
 
A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly sunny, with a high near 102. East southeast wind around 5 mph becoming west in the afternoon.
Tuesday Night
 
A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 81. West wind around 5 mph becoming south after midnight.
Wednesday
 
A 10 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly sunny, with a high near 102. West wind around 5 mph.
Wednesday Night
 
A 10 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with a low around 82. West southwest wind around 5 mph.
Thursday
 
Mostly sunny, with a high near 104. West southwest wind around 5 mph.
Thursday Night
 
A 10 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 82. West wind around 5 mph.
Friday
 
Mostly sunny, with a high near 105. West southwest wind around 5 mph.
Friday Night
 
A 10 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with a low around 83. West wind around 5 mph becoming north northwest after midnight.
Saturday
 
Mostly sunny, with a high near 107. Northwest wind around 5 mph becoming southwest in the morning.
Saturday Night
 
Partly cloudy, with a low around 84. West wind around 5 mph.
Sunday
 
Mostly sunny, with a high near 108. West southwest wind around 5 mph.

 

Forecast from NOAA-NWS for 8 Miles NNE Phoenix AZ.




Phoenix, Az - Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion for PSR NWS Office
000
FXUS65 KPSR 160211
AFDPSR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
710 PM MST Sun Jul 15 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Moisture levels will remain substantial enough through the middle
part of the week to support isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms. Most activity will remain through central Arizona
with locally gusty winds and heavy rain. A slow decrease in moisture
levels and warming temperatures will spread into the region during
the latter part of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
The overall synoptic setup has changed very little in the past 24
hours with anti-cyclone centers off the southern California coast,
as well as southern Colorado. The forecast area remains in very weak
flow between these two features with mesoscale processes largely
determining convective potential and ascent fields. A lingering MCV
from last night drifted into SE Arizona during the day with better
instability and resulting upper level divergence relegated to
northern Arizona. A convective complex drifting south of Flagstaff
has seemingly incurred its own MCV now, albeit mostly exhausting
available instability around its proximity.

00Z KPSR sounding data sampled a robust 1.87 inches of total column
PWAT with healthy 12 g/kg mixing ratios in the sfc-800mb layer.
However, some notable drying occurred near the top of the boundary
layer around 700mb creating significant CinH while overall lapse
rates remain meager limiting total MLCape to only around 100 J/kg.
Not surprisingly, all convection has essentially evaporated moving
off higher terrain. Have cut forecast POPs for the remainder of the
evening while only keeping lower POPs going overnight in response to
the nearly saturated MCV center drifting south into the forecast
area potentially squeezing out a few light showers (as shown by
better performing high resolution guidance). Otherwise with the lack
of storm activity, have also cancelled the Flash Flood Watch early
in coordination with neighboring offices.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
/202 PM MST Sun Jul 15 2018/
The next in the series of inverted troughs will approach SE Arizona
late Monday. This setup is generally not favorable for widespread
activity across central Arizona. Nevertheless, conditions will
remain quite moist across the Mogollon Rim and convection is again
expected to develop in these areas. Steering flow ahead of the
trough will be out of the east-northeast and CAMs generally indicate
that isolated storms will reach the Phoenix area late in the
afternoon and in the evening.

During the latter half of the week, PWs are expected to slowly
decrease to near 1.0-1.5 in. The slow decrease in moisture and an
increase in H5 heights to near 597dm will usher in a warming trend
and a return to dangerous heat. High temperatures over the weekend
are likely to exceed 110 degrees by Saturday. Meanwhile, periodic
chances for thunderstorms will continue throughout the forecast
period ending next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, and KSDL:
Timing wind shifts resulting from outflow boundaries will be the
primary aviation forecast challenge through Monday evening. An
initial northerly push should slowly weaken and become an easterly
gradient overnight, though uncertainty exists regarding how quickly
this occurs. Otherwise, thicker midlevel clouds in a 10K-12K ft
layer should generally spread across the terminal sites. A few
sprinkles/light showers are possible, but minimal to no impacts on
operations preclude any mention in the TAF package.

Sfc winds will likely obtain a more pronounced westerly direction
early Monday afternoon versus trends the past several days allowing
a switch in traffic direction more typical of aerodromes. Storms
late Monday afternoon/evening well northeast of Phoenix could send
another outflow boundary and gusty northeast winds back into the
terminal sites around the evening push.


Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:
Potential wind shifts due to outflow boundaries from distant
thunderstorms will be the only aviation concern through Monday.
While still fairly uncertain, there are indications that northeast
winds may affect KBLH overnight, while a southwest wind shift will
move into KIPL. These winds will be rather temporary as the
prevailing S/SE winds should resume Monday morning.

Aviation Discussion not updated for amended TAFs.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Wednesday through Sunday:
Monsoon moisture will remain in place with scattered to isolated
showers and thunderstorms anticipated through the middle part of the
week. This will include pockets of wetting rains, especially over
the higher terrain of eastern areas. A slow drying and warming trend
will develop during the latter half of the week, except for the
higher terrain locales where isolated storms will continue. Below
normal high temperatures will finally reach to near normal levels by
Thursday, climbing well above normal by the weekend as hotter
deserts reach or exceed 110 degrees.

Min RH values will remain above 20 percent across the region through
Thursday except for SE CA where it will range near 15-20 percent.
Lower deserts will dry a bit with minimum RH falling into upper
teens Friday into Saturday. Outside of gusty thunderstorm winds,
expect typical light to moderate winds favoring variable, diurnal
and afternoon upslope patterns. Overnight recovery will generally be
fair to good and occasionally excellent.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotters should follow standard reporting procedures.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MO
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...Hirsch/Sawtelle
AVIATION...MO
FIRE WEATHER...Hirsch/Sawtelle/CB

NWS PSR Office Area Forecast Discussion






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 Pepper Ridge North Valley Random Weather Facts

WIND CHILL
Wind Chill - The wind chill temperature is what the temperature "feels like" to people and animals during cold weather. Wind chill is based on the rate of heat loss from exposed skin caused by wind and cold. As the wind increases, it draws heat from the body, driving down skin temperature and eventually the internal body temperature. Once temperatures drop below 10 °F and the wind is gusting, conditions are ripe for cold-related illnesses. Below -5 °F, any wind is a major factor in frostbite and hypothermia.

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