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PEPPERRIDGE NORTH VALLEY'S
7 DAY DETAIL FORECAST FOR NORTH PHOENIX, AZ.


National Weather Service Forecast for: 8 Miles NNE Phoenix AZ
Issued by: National Weather Service Phoenix, AZ
Updated: 10:00 am MST Nov 20, 2017

North Phoenix Arizona
 
This
Afternoon
This Afternoon: Mostly sunny, with a high near 77. Calm wind.
Mostly Sunny
Tonight

Tonight: Partly cloudy, with a low around 53. Calm wind.
Partly Cloudy
Tuesday

Tuesday: Sunny, with a high near 83. Calm wind.
Sunny
Tuesday
Night
Tuesday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 58. North northwest wind around 5 mph becoming calm.
Mostly Clear
Wednesday

Wednesday: Sunny, with a high near 87. Calm wind becoming east northeast around 5 mph.
Sunny
Wednesday
Night
Wednesday Night: Clear, with a low around 59. West northwest wind around 5 mph becoming east northeast after midnight.
Clear
Thanksgiving
Day
Thanksgiving Day: Sunny, with a high near 87. East northeast wind around 5 mph becoming calm  in the afternoon.
Sunny
Thursday
Night
Thursday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 59. Calm wind.
Mostly Clear
Friday

Friday: Sunny, with a high near 85. Calm wind becoming east southeast around 5 mph.
Sunny
Hi 77 °F Lo 53 °F Hi 83 °F Lo 58 °F Hi 87 °F Lo 59 °F Hi 87 °F Lo 59 °F Hi 85 °F

 

This Afternoon
 
Mostly sunny, with a high near 77. Calm wind.
Tonight
 
Partly cloudy, with a low around 53. Calm wind.
Tuesday
 
Sunny, with a high near 83. Calm wind.
Tuesday Night
 
Mostly clear, with a low around 58. North northwest wind around 5 mph becoming calm.
Wednesday
 
Sunny, with a high near 87. Calm wind becoming east northeast around 5 mph.
Wednesday Night
 
Clear, with a low around 59. West northwest wind around 5 mph becoming east northeast after midnight.
Thanksgiving Day
 
Sunny, with a high near 87. East northeast wind around 5 mph becoming calm in the afternoon.
Thursday Night
 
Mostly clear, with a low around 59. Calm wind.
Friday
 
Sunny, with a high near 85. Calm wind becoming east southeast around 5 mph.
Friday Night
 
Mostly clear, with a low around 58. Calm wind.
Saturday
 
Sunny, with a high near 84. Calm wind.
Saturday Night
 
Mostly clear, with a low around 58. Calm wind.
Sunday
 
Sunny, with a high near 84. East northeast wind around 5 mph becoming calm.

 

Forecast from NOAA-NWS for 8 Miles NNE Phoenix AZ.




Phoenix, Az - Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion for PSR NWS Office
000
FXUS65 KPSR 201716
AFDPSR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
1016 AM MST Mon Nov 20 2017

.UPDATE...
Weak short wave moving through the region today will impart some
modest CAA and, along with the upper level clouds, will inhibit
temperatures just a little bit. Otherwise winds will be light and
it will be yet another quiet fall day. Peaking at the 20.12Z GFS,
still looks like the dry streak will continue through the next
seven days, highlighted with very warm/near record temperatures.
Further analysis with full 12Z suite of ensemble data.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
The streak of drier weather and above normal temperatures will
persist through the week with unseasonable warmth quickly
returning the next several days. In fact, record highs will be
likely by the middle of the week and into the long holiday
weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Another cool morning underway for many locations as much of the
forecast area is under partly to mostly clear skies and light
winds. Flow pattern through the mid and upper levels is from the
northwest, with more of a northerly pull the upper high you go
towards jet level. Some high level moisture is advecting into the
region from the north producing some thicker cirrus fields across
western AZ and the Colorado River, remnant blow off from the
atmospheric river event bringing valley rain/mountain snow for the
Pac NW and northern CA. Cloud cover will continue to filter across
southeast CA and Arizona today and Tuesday before strong ridging
lifts the storm track well to our north. Daytime temperatures will
continue their above normal stretch, as regional 500mb heights are
already at the 75th percentile of climatology from the Sunday
evening RAOBs and are forecast to stay elevated well beyond the
Thanksgiving holiday.

While the entire forecast period will be above seasonal normals
(which are in the mid 70s for both Phoenix and Yuma), Wednesday
and Thursday look to be the peak of the warming. 500mb heights
peak at climatological maxes over the Lower Colorado River Valley,
with 1000-500mb thicknesses cresting into the upper 570 dams by
mid-week. Forecast solution agreement remains high between
deterministic and ensemble suites as 594-595 500mb ridge heights
set-up in the vicinity of northern Baja by Wednesday. Ridging
peaks Wednesday but warming will continue to hold into Thursday
before ridge heights are flattened as a stronger northeast Pacific
trough skirts across the northern tier of the CONUS. This will
bring some subtle cooling to the area, but enough to take us down
out of record territory but still above normal readings for late
November.

Latest blended guidance continues to strongly suggest that
temperatures will exceed daily records by Wednesday and Thanksgiving
(see Climate section below). It`s not totally out of the question
that Phoenix could flirt with 90 degrees Wednesday/Thursday,
which would set a record for the latest 90 at KPHX (record is 90
deg on Nov 15 1999). PoPs also remain at 0 percent and it is very
likely the long dry stretch will continue into at least the end of
November, which would result in a meteorological fall (Sept-Oct-
Nov) without any measurable rainfall at Sky Harbor Airport (last
occurred in 1938).

&&

.AVIATION...
South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, and KSDL:

Dry northwest flow into the central deserts will send periods of
high clouds across the terminals next 24 hours, with bases genly aoa
20k feet. Expect BKN decks at times, often thin. Winds to be very
light and only weakly follow typical diurnal tendencies at the TAF
sites. KPHX will likely only weakly see west winds, beginning aft
22z and ending before midnight.

Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:

Strong high pressure centered west of Arizona will lead to periods
of high clouds across the western deserts next 24 hours. TAF sites
may see BKN decks at times aoa 20k feet but often the cirrus decks
will be rather thin. Winds to be very light with light/variable
reports common especially at KBLH. No aviation impacts expected at
the TAF sites for at least the next 24 hours and likely for the rest
of the week.

Aviation Discussion not updated for amended TAFs.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Wednesday through Sunday: Unseasonably strong high pressure aloft
will bring warming conditions through the middle of the week with
temperatures reaching into the middle to upper 80s across the
deserts starting Wednesday. Rather dry air will also affect the area
through Wednesday before there is a slight boost in moisture by late
in the period. Minimum RH values will fall between 10-15% through
Wednesday and 15-20% for the rest of the week. Light winds will
dominate for the duration of the forecast.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record highs for selected dates this week:

Date         Phoenix            Yuma
----         -------            ----
Nov 22      89 in 1950        91 in 1950
Nov 23      87 in 1950        87 in 1950
Nov 24      88 in 1950        89 in 1950

The Phoenix record high for any Thanksgiving is 87 on Nov 23 1950
and Nov 27 2014.

The Yuma record high for any Thanksgiving is 87 on Nov 23 1950.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotters should follow standard reporting procedures.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$

Visit us on Facebook, Twitter, and at weather.gov/phoenix

DISCUSSION...Nolte/Hirsch
AVIATION...CB
FIRE WEATHER...Kuhlman/CB
CLIMATE...MO

NWS PSR Office Area Forecast Discussion






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 Pepper Ridge North Valley Random Weather Facts

WIND CHILL
Wind Chill - The wind chill temperature is what the temperature "feels like" to people and animals during cold weather. Wind chill is based on the rate of heat loss from exposed skin caused by wind and cold. As the wind increases, it draws heat from the body, driving down skin temperature and eventually the internal body temperature. Once temperatures drop below 10 °F and the wind is gusting, conditions are ripe for cold-related illnesses. Below -5 °F, any wind is a major factor in frostbite and hypothermia.

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