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PEPPERRIDGE NORTH VALLEY'S
7 DAY DETAIL FORECAST FOR NORTH PHOENIX, AZ.


National Weather Service Forecast for: 8 Miles NNE Phoenix AZ
Issued by: National Weather Service Phoenix, AZ
Updated: 1:28 am MST Mar 28, 2024

North Phoenix Arizona
 
Overnight

Overnight: Mostly clear, with a low around 50. Northeast wind around 5 mph.
Mostly Clear


Thursday

Thursday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 80. Calm wind becoming south around 5 mph in the morning.
Mostly Sunny


Thursday
Night
Thursday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 53. Southwest wind around 5 mph becoming calm  in the evening.
Partly Cloudy


Friday

Friday: Sunny, with a high near 80. Breezy, with a southeast wind 5 to 10 mph becoming southwest 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 20 mph.
Sunny then
Sunny and
Breezy

Friday
Night
Friday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 55. West southwest wind 5 to 10 mph becoming east southeast after midnight.
Mostly Clear


Saturday

Saturday: Patchy blowing dust after 3pm. Sunny, with a high near 80. Windy, with a southeast wind 5 to 10 mph becoming south southwest 15 to 25 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 40 mph.
Sunny and
Breezy then
Patchy
Blowing Dust
and Windy
Saturday
Night
Saturday Night: Showers likely after 11pm.  Patchy blowing dust before 7pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 51. Breezy, with a south southwest wind 15 to 20 mph decreasing to 10 to 15 mph after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 30 mph.  Chance of precipitation is 60%. New precipitation amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.
Showers
Likely and
Breezy

Sunday

Sunday: Showers and possibly a thunderstorm before 11am, then showers likely.  High near 62. South southwest wind around 10 mph.  Chance of precipitation is 90%. New precipitation amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.
Showers


Sunday
Night
Sunday Night: Showers likely.  Mostly cloudy, with a low around 48. East southeast wind 5 to 10 mph.  Chance of precipitation is 70%. New precipitation amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.
Showers
Likely


Lo 50 °F

Hi 80 °F

Lo 53 °F

Hi 80 °F

Lo 55 °F

Hi 80 °F

Lo 51 °F

Hi 62 °F

Lo 48 °F


 

Overnight
 
Mostly clear, with a low around 50. Northeast wind around 5 mph.
Thursday
 
Mostly sunny, with a high near 80. Calm wind becoming south around 5 mph in the morning.
Thursday Night
 
Partly cloudy, with a low around 53. Southwest wind around 5 mph becoming calm in the evening.
Friday
 
Sunny, with a high near 80. Breezy, with a southeast wind 5 to 10 mph becoming southwest 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 20 mph.
Friday Night
 
Mostly clear, with a low around 55. West southwest wind 5 to 10 mph becoming east southeast after midnight.
Saturday
 
Patchy blowing dust after 3pm. Sunny, with a high near 80. Windy, with a southeast wind 5 to 10 mph becoming south southwest 15 to 25 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 40 mph.
Saturday Night
 
Showers likely after 11pm. Patchy blowing dust before 7pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 51. Breezy, with a south southwest wind 15 to 20 mph decreasing to 10 to 15 mph after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New precipitation amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.
Sunday
 
Showers and possibly a thunderstorm before 11am, then showers likely. High near 62. South southwest wind around 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New precipitation amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.
Sunday Night
 
Showers likely. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 48. East southeast wind 5 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New precipitation amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.
Monday
 
A chance of showers, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 11am. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 64. East southeast wind 5 to 10 mph becoming west southwest in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Monday Night
 
Partly cloudy, with a low around 48. West northwest wind around 5 mph becoming east northeast after midnight.
Tuesday
 
Sunny, with a high near 73. East northeast wind 5 to 10 mph becoming west southwest in the afternoon.
Tuesday Night
 
Mostly clear, with a low around 52. West southwest wind 5 to 10 mph becoming northeast in the evening.
Wednesday
 
Sunny, with a high near 79. East northeast wind 5 to 10 mph becoming west southwest in the afternoon.

 

Forecast from NOAA-NWS for 8 Miles NNE Phoenix AZ.




Phoenix, Az - Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion for PSR NWS Office
000
FXUS65 KPSR 280539
AFDPSR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
1039 PM MST Wed Mar 27 2024

.UPDATE...Updated 06z Aviation Discussion...

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
A brief pattern change will result in dry and tranquil conditions,
along with warming temperatures through Thursday. Strong low-
pressure will towards the southern California Coast by the
weekend brining renewed chances for rainfall, breezy to locally
windy conditons, and cooler-than-normal temperatures. Rain
chances linger into the start of next week before dry and warmer
conditions return once more.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Current upper-air analysis reveals the trough that provided parts
of Arizona with multiple days of rain and snow has pushed over
the Central Plains while an upper ridge builds over the Desert
Southwest in the previous systems` wake. This pattern shift will
promote warming temperatures over the next few days while also
providing a break from any rain chances. Afternoon highs this
afternoon across the lower deserts of south-central Arizona will
range between the middle to upper 70s while warmer temperatures in
the upper 70s to lower 80s are anticipated for desert communities
of southwestern Arizona and southeastern California. High
pressure is expected to stick around through Thursday allowing for
continued warming with widespread lower to mid 80s across lower
desert communities.

Heading into the latter portion of this week and into the weekend,
global ensembles continue to depict a potent low-pressure system
diving south, with the center of circulation hanging just off the
California Coast, that will switch our pattern back towards cooler
and more unsettled weather. The initial effects of this system will
be felt Thursday evening as breezy conditions develop over parts of
southeastern California before spreading over much of our forecast
area by Friday as the regional pressure gradient becomes more
enhanced. The strongest winds Friday will be focused over southeast
California and southwest Arizona with gusts potentially reaching
advisory criteria. Breezy to locally windy conditions will persist
into Saturday, with the strongest winds becoming focused over south-
central Arizona, including the Phoenix metro, where winds will once
again have the potential of reaching advisory level criteria.

Ensemble guidance remains in very good agreement with the low center
reaching off the coast of southern California Saturday before taking
a turn to east toward the Desert Southwest. The strength of the low
still looks very impressive with 500mb heights near or reaching
climatological record Mins Saturday off the California coast before
starting a notable weakening phase as it moves into our region on
Sunday. The strong system which involves a near climatological
record upper level jet max of 150-160kts is also forecast to pull
up decent Pacific moisture on the order of 200-240% of normals
into southern California by midday Saturday and into much of
southern Arizona Saturday night.

Timing of this systems associated cold front has remained
relatively consistent since last night and continue to show this
boundary beginning to move through southeast California by late
afternoon/early evening Saturday. Enough moisture and forcing will
be in place to support a band of light to moderate showers, but
rain amounts with this activity are likely to be inhibited due to
the rain shadow effect. Nonetheless, current QPF totals call for
between 0.10-0.25" for areas west of the Colorado River. As this
activity continues to press eastward towards southwestern and
south-central Arizona, it is not out of the question it could
evolve into a squall line with embedded thunderstorm due to ample
frontal forcing and favorable boundary-relative flow. Robust
convective activity will likely be inhibited due to the lack of
instability being shown in model soundings, but a few
thunderstorms capable of producing heavy rainfall and strong winds
may be realized. Rainfall totals over south-central Arizona
currently range between 0.25-0.50", with greater totals being
indicated over higher terrain areas north and east of Phoenix.

The aforementioned cold front is projected to exit the region by
Sunday afternoon, but that will not spell the end to rain chances
for the remainder of the weekend. With the main cold core
forecasted to be just off to the west of our coverage area through
the remainder of Sunday, the greatest cyclonic vorticity
advection, and therefore the greatest area of lift, will be pinned
right over the Desert Southwest. This rising motion combined with
what is expected to be a moist atmospheric profile will promote
renewed shower and thunderstorm activity. Global ensembles want to
keep the this system over the region even as far as late
Monday/early Tuesday. It appears that there will be enough
residual moisture and instability to promote more isolated shower
and thunderstorms, some capable of producing small hail and gusty
winds, especially Monday afternoon over south-central Arizona. As
far as temperatures, they are expected to crash Saturday night
into Sunday behind the cold front with highs potentially being
reached at midnight in some areas as daytime highs may only be in
the lower 60s across south- central Arizona. Depending on how long
the upper level low remains near or over the region early next
week, below normal temperatures are likely to persist through at
least next Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...Updated at 0535Z.

South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT:

No aviation weather issues expected during the TAF period. Wind
pattern will follow a more typical diurnal tendency with light
speeds aob 7 kts. A few hours of southerly winds will be possible
during the diurnal transition. FEW-SCT high clouds are expected
through the period.

Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:

The main aviation weather issue during the TAF period will be
gusty winds late Thursday afternoon through Thursday evening. In
the meantime, winds during the overnight through the early
morning hours will be light and variable. Winds will acquire a
westerly component at KIPL and a south to southwesterly component
at KBLH Thursday morning. Wind speeds, especially during the late
afternoon through the early evening hours, will pick up with
gusts upwards to 25 kts, with the strongest gusts at KIPL.
FEW-SCT high clouds are expected through the period.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
High pressure and drier conditions will spread over the region
starting today with temperatures warming to slightly above normal
by Thursday. Expect light winds today and generally light winds
Thursday, but with some afternoon breeziness across the western
districts. Lower humidities are also expected with MinRHs today
ranging from around 15% over the western districts to 25-30% over
the Arizona high terrain before dropping another 5% on Thursday.
By Friday, expect breezy to windy conditions areawide with MinRHs
humidities remaining mostly in the 15-20% range. By the weekend, a
strong low pressure system will be moving in from the west
bringing fairly widespread wetting rains Saturday night into
Sunday along with cooler temperatures and higher humidities.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Kuhlman
AVIATION...Lojero
FIRE WEATHER...Kuhlman

NWS PSR Office Area Forecast Discussion






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 Pepper Ridge North Valley Random Weather Facts

RAINFALL
Terms such as "slight chance" of rain (10-20%), "chance" of rain (30-50%) or rain "likely" (60-70%) are used when there is uncertainty of receiving measurable precipitation anywhere in the forecast area (such as the Greater Phoenix Area). For instance, if there is only a 30-50 percent chance that rain will fall anywhere in the Phoenix Metro area, then the forecast will call for a "chance" of rain.

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