941
FXUS65 KPSR 101726
AFDPSR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
1026 AM MST Wed Dec 10 2025

.UPDATE...Updated Aviation Discussion.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Well above normal temperatures are expected to continue into
  next week with some locations flirting with record highs over
  the next few days.

- Dry and tranquil conditions will prevail for at least the next
  week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
An unseasonably strong high pressure ridge will continue to
dominate across the Southwestern U.S. through the rest of this
week. The center of the ridge will largely remain just off the
California coast over the next few days, but H5 heights of
582-585dm (well above 90th percentile of climatology) will stay
in place across the Desert Southwest. This will continue to allow
for well above normal temperatures with highs mainly in the upper
70s across the lower deserts to as warm as the lower 80s in places
like El Centro and Yuma. We can`t rule out some daily records
being threatened, but the probabilities of reaching records are
generally 30% or less each day. In addition to the warm
temperatures, sky conditions will remain clear to mostly clear
through Friday.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK/...
The weather pattern over the weekend and likely through most if
not all of next week will continue to support ridging mostly
dominating across the Southwestern U.S. The ridge to our west is
expected to weaken over the weekend as one or two very weak
shortwave troughs try to undercut or move into the ridge. These
disturbances should lead to the ridge weakening or even pushing
through and then to the east of our region by Sunday or Monday,
but H5 heights are not expected to drop all that much. The near 80
degree daily highs are likely to persist through at least
Saturday and maybe even Sunday before the lower heights bring
highs more into a 74-77 degree range by early next week. The
disruption of the ridge should also result in periods of higher
level clouds moving through the region.

Model guidance shows very good agreement in rebuilding the ridge
again to our west by next Tuesday before moving back over our
region by next Wednesday or Thursday. Both the GEFS and EPS show
mean H5 heights staying between 579-582dm through all of next
week which should keep daytime highs well into the 70s, but
slightly cooler than what we will see over the next couple of
days. Guidance shows no precipitation chances through next week.

&&

.AVIATION...Updated at 1726Z.

South Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT; and
Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:

No aviation weather concerns will exist through the TAF period
under clear skies. Wind tendencies will be very similar to the
past 24 hours with only a brief late afternoon/early evening
switch to the W/NW in the Phoenix metro. Winds will tend to
predominantly favor the W at KIPL and N-NW at KBLH. Extended
periods of variable or calm conditions will continue.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Warm and dry weather will prevail across the region through this
week. Temperatures will be above normal and gradually warm to 8-13
degrees above normal by the end of the week. A dry weather system
toward the middle of next week may enhance winds. Otherwise, winds
will remain light every day and follow diurnal tendencies.
Humidities over the next week will stay above critical levels with
afternoon MinRHs mostly ranging between 20-25%, followed by good
overnight recoveries to around 50-70%.

&&

.CLIMATE...Daily Record Highs

   Phoenix
   -------
12/11  81 (1977)
12/12  79 (2010)
12/13  82 (2010)
12/14  78 (2010)
12/15  79 (1969)

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Kuhlman
LONG TERM...Kuhlman
AVIATION...Smith
FIRE WEATHER...Benedict/Kuhlman
CLIMATE...Benedict

NWS PSR Office Area Forecast Discussion