000
FXUS65 KPSR 011001
AFDPSR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
301 AM MST Thu Jun 1 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
A transition in weather pattern will result in calmer conditions
across the lower deserts beginning today, with passing mid to high
clouds and continued below normal temperatures. Some lingering
breezy to windy conditions will linger across southeastern CA
through this evening. Temperatures will trend more towards normal
by the weekend, with dry conditions extending into next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Early morning satellite depicts an upper level low centered
across northcentral AZ. This feature is best seen in water vapor,
with southcentral AZ under the dry slot of the low. This low will
lift northward across the four corners region today, with a
secondary trough moving across Baja California this afternoon and
evening. The resultant impacts for the weather across the region
for today is continued well below normal temperatures as mid-
level temperature anomalies will be on the order of 6-8 degrees C
below normal. Due to the dissipation in winds aloft, breezy to
windy conditions will become more limited today, with strongest
winds across southeastern CA particularly in higher terrain areas.

The mid-level blocking pattern in place across eastern CONUS will
keep a train of troughs persisting across western CONUS through
the better parts of next week. Ensembles are hinting at a more
classic Omega block setting up for most of next week, thus mid-
level heights 20-50 m below normal (generally 576-582 dam) will
continue through the better part of the next week. As a result,
temperatures rebounding this weekend due to transitory ridging
will trend cooler as the next troughing pattern settles into the
Desert Southwest going into early next week. Ensembles are in
excellent agreement through the middle of next week, thus
temperatures at or below 100 degrees for highs are the expectation
through the better part of next week with dry conditions.

&&

.AVIATION...Updated at 0530Z.

South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, KDVT:
No aviation concerns are expected during the TAF period as diurnal
winds make their return to the forecast. Speeds are expected to be
light aob 10 kts. Besides some cumulus clouds lingering over the
region for the next few hours, skies will be mostly clear for the
remainder of the period.

Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:
No aviation concerns are expected through tomorrow afternoon as
more tranquil conditions return. Light winds will be favored out
of the W at IPL, before a late morning shift to the SE. At BLH,
winds will be light out of the S through tomorrow morning. Skies
will remain clear during the period.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Minimum humidity values today through Friday will generally range
between 10 and 20 percent. Lighter winds will settle into the
region, with elevated breezy to windy conditions limited to
southeastern CA, particularly in the higher terrain areas.
Otherwise, typical diurnal winds will persist across the lower
deserts through the weekend. Below normal temperatures are
anticipated through Friday before a warming and drying trend for
the weekend.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...Updated 145 AM MST 5/31/2023

GILA: Based on the latest information from the water management
officials, releases from Painted Rock Dam are expected to
increment once again to above 1000 cfs during the next couple of
days. This will cause the water flow along Gila River, downstream
from the dam, to increase once again and will likely impact
unbridged crossings. Therefore, the Flood Warnings along the Gila
River between Painted Rock Dam and the Colorado River have been
extended through at least June 6th.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...Wind Advisory until 5 AM PDT early this morning for CAZ562-566.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Young
AVIATION...RW
FIRE WEATHER...Young
HYDROLOGY...Lojero

NWS PSR Office Area Forecast Discussion