509
FXUS65 KPSR 140511
AFDPSR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
1011 PM MST Wed May 13 2026

.UPDATE...Updated 06z Aviation Discussion...

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Temperatures will remain stable several degrees above normal
through Saturday followed by further cooling closer to the daily
normals early next week.

- Breezy conditions will return to the area over the weekend with
the strongest gusts across SE California and the Arizona high
terrain.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Today through Friday/...
Subtropical high pressure has fully shifted into the southern plains
this afternoon while elongated troughing and weak height falls
spread into the SW Conus. Deep southerly flow has imported a measure
of mid/high level moisture/clouds into the region, however lower
levels remain largely dessicated relegating any chance of
precipitation to mountainous areas well north and east of the CWA.
This troughing feature will, however, aid in mechanical mixing of
higher momentum air through the boundary layer though this evening,
though the strongest wind gusts will be relegated to northern
Arizona. Otherwise, modest height falls along with scattered cloud
cover will ensure temperatures several degrees cooler than yesterday.
Weak troughing will linger over the SW Conus through Friday
maintaining H5 heights around 582dm, and forcing a near persistence
forecast. Confidence is very good of afternoon highs 4F-8F above
normal while clearing skies and a dry airmass support comfortable
overnight lows very close to the daily normals.

&&

.LONG TERM /Saturday through Wednesday/...
The weather pattern through the weekend is shaping up to drive a
deep Pacific trough through the Northwestern U.S. with at least one
piece of energy reaching the Desert Southwest on Saturday and/or
Sunday. West northwesterly dry flow is expected to dominate across
our region through at least early next week keeping skies clear to
mostly clear and humidities seasonably low. The main forecast
concern will be the increased winds associated any passing
disturbances bringing elevated to critical fire weather conditions.
Differences in model timing and the track of the disturbances still
remain, but based on pattern recognition it is likely to result in
at least a day or two of elevated fire weather conditions. The
current timing of the stronger winds favors southeast California and
southwest Arizona Saturday, the Arizona higher terrain Sunday, and
potentially the Lower CO River Valley on Monday.

Temperatures are expected to dip further starting around Sunday, but
model spread is fairly high at this point. A deeper system could
drop lower desert highs closer to 90 degrees, whereas one that
somewhat bypasses to the north may only bring mid 90s for a day or
two early next week. Beyond early next week, guidance mostly show a
ridge building back into the region bringing gradually warmer
temperatures. The latest NBM/WPC guidance shows readings potentially
reaching 100 degrees again by next Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...Updated at 0505Z.

South Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT:
No major aviation weather concerns under generally clear skies can
be expected throughout the TAF period. The overall wind pattern
will follow the typical diurnal tendencies with speeds generally
aob 10 kts, with occasional afternoon gusts into the mid to upper
teens.

Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:
No major aviation weather concerns under generally clear skies can
be expected throughout the TAF period. At KIPL, winds will
generally be out of the west while at KBLH, winds will generally
fluctuate out of the south to southwest. Wind speeds will
generally be between 8-12 kts throughout the period. Another round
of peak gusts upwards of 20-25 kts will be possible at KIPL
during the late afternoon/evening hours.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Hot, dry, and locally breezy to windy conditions will result in
elevated fire weather potential this afternoon across the Lower CO
River Valley. Wind gusts of 20-30 mph along with RHs 7-10% are
expected across the Lower CO River Valley. Elsewhere today, winds
will be lighter but with afternoon gusts of 15-20 mph possible.
Wednesday will bring another round of breezy winds over southeast
California and the Arizona high terrain with elevated fire weather
conditions again a possibility. Temperatures today will be 10-15
degrees above normal dropping to 5-8 degrees above normal starting
Wednesday. Winds will diminish starting Thursday, but very dry
conditions will continue to prevail.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...18
LONG TERM...Kuhlman
AVIATION...Lojero
FIRE WEATHER...18/Kuhlman

NWS PSR Office Area Forecast Discussion