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Tropical Activity - Eastern Pacific



NHC Eastern North Pacific

Active tropical cyclones in the Eastern North Pacific


Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 011141
TWOEP 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Sat Oct 1 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical 
Storm Orlene, located a couple hundred miles south-southwest of Cabo 
Corrientes, Mexico.

South-Southwest of the Baja California Peninsula:
Shower activity has increased since yesterday in association with an 
area of disturbed weather located several hundred miles 
south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California 
peninsula.  Additional slow development of this system is possible, 
and a tropical depression could form during the next several days as 
it moves slowly northeastward or northward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven

Tropical Storm Tropical


Tropical Storm Orlene

 

Tropical Activity - Atlantic Basin


Atlantic/Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

000
ABNT20 KNHC 011145
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sat Oct 1 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center has issued its last advisory on 
Post-Tropical Cyclone Ian, located inland over North Carolina. 
Future public advisories on Ian will be issued by the Weather 
Prediction Center. 

Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave continues to produce disorganized showers and 
thunderstorms several hundred miles south of the Cabo Verde Islands. 
Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for gradual 
development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to 
form during the early to middle part of next week while it moves 
westward and then turns northwestward at 5 to 10 mph over the 
eastern tropical Atlantic. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

&&
Public advisories issued by the Weather Prediction Center on 
Post-Tropical Cyclone Ian can be found under AWIPS header TCPAT4, 
WMO header WTNT34 KWNH, and on the web at 
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov. 

$$
Forecaster Papin

Summary for Post-Tropical Cyclone Ian (AT4/AL092022)

...IAN'S HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND MID-ATLANTIC...
 As of 5:00 AM EDT Sat Oct 1
 the center of Ian was located near 35.7, -79.8
 with movement NNW at 12 mph.
 The minimum central pressure was 1001 mb
 with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Post-Tropical Cyclone Ian Public Advisory Number 35

Issued at 500 AM EDT Sat Oct 01 2022  

000
WTNT34 KNHC 010840
TCPAT4
 
BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Ian Advisory Number  35
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092022
500 AM EDT Sat Oct 01 2022
 
...IAN'S HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND
MID-ATLANTIC...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...35.7N 79.8W
ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM S OF GREENSBORO NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Ian
was located near latitude 35.7 North, longitude 79.8 West.  The
post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the north-northwest near 12
mph (19 km/h).  A turn toward the north with a decrease in forward 
speed is expected later today.  On the forecast track, the center 
of Ian is expected to move northward across central North Carolina 
this morning and reach south-central Virginia by this afternoon.
 
Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) 
with higher gusts.  These winds are occurring over the waters east 
of North Carolina and Virginia.  Additional weakening is expected, 
and Ian is forecast to dissipate over south-central Virginia by 
tonight.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Ian can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion
under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the
web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.
 
WIND:  Gusty winds are expected to continue across portions of the
central and southern Appalachians through this morning.
 
RAINFALL:  Ian is expected to produce 2 to 4 inches with local
maxima of 6 inches across portions of the Central Appalachians and
coastal Mid-Atlantic.
 
Major to record river flooding will continue across central Florida
through next week.  Limited flash, urban and small stream flooding
is possible across the central Appalachians and the southern
Mid-Atlantic this weekend, with minor river flooding expected over
the coastal Carolinas.
 
SURF:  Swells generated by Ian are affecting the coast of the
southeastern United States and the northwestern Bahamas but should
gradually subside over the weekend.  These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system.  Future information on Ian can be found in 
Public Advisories issued by the Weather Prediction Center beginning 
at 11 AM EDT, under AWIPS header TCPAT4, WMO header WTNT34 KWNH, 
and on the web at http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov. 
 
$$
Forecaster Berg

Post-Tropical Cyclone Ian Forecast Advisory Number 35

Issued at 0900 UTC SAT OCT 01 2022  

000
WTNT24 KNHC 010839
TCMAT4
 
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  35
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092022
0900 UTC SAT OCT 01 2022
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.7N  79.8W AT 01/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT  10 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.7N  79.8W AT 01/0900Z
AT 01/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 35.3N  79.7W
 
FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 36.8N  79.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 35.7N  79.8W
 
THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE 
CENTER ON IAN.  FUTURE INFORMATION ON IAN CAN BE FOUND IN PUBLIC 
ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER BEGINNING AT 11 
AM EDT (1500 UTC), UNDER AWIPS HEADER TCPAT4, WMO HEADER WTNT34 
KWNH, AND ON THE WEB AT HTTP://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV.  ADDITIONAL 
INFORMATION CAN ALSO BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO 
HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

 
$$
FORECASTER BERG

Post-Tropical Cyclone Ian Forecast Discussion Number 35

Issued at 500 AM EDT Sat Oct 01 2022  

000
WTNT44 KNHC 010840
TCDAT4
 
Post-Tropical Cyclone Ian Discussion Number  35
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092022
500 AM EDT Sat Oct 01 2022
 
Ian's circulation continues to wind down, and marine observations 
off the coast of North Carolina and Virginia, as well as earlier 
ASCAT data, indicate that maximum winds in the southerly flow south 
of the warm front have dropped below gale force.  The initial 
intensity is set at 30 kt for this advisory, with those winds 
occurring over the Atlantic waters.  The bulk of the associated 
rainfall is located north and west of the occluded/warm front, 
stretching from the southern Appalachians northward across the 
Mid-Atlantic states.

Ian's center has turned north-northwestward and slowed down over 
central North Carolina, with an initial motion of 345/10 kt.  The 
system is forecast to turn back to the north and slow down further 
later today, and global model fields indicate that the low center 
should dissipate over south-central Virginia by this evening.  
This is indicated in the new official forecast.  A new frontal 
low may form on the triple point over the Delmarva Peninsula or 
adjacent Atlantic waters and scoot eastward later today or tonight.

Although seas 12 feet or greater continue over portions of the 
adjacent Atlantic waters, they are not indicated in this forecast 
package since they are so far east of Ian's center.  Information on 
seas and high winds over marine areas can be found in High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service...under AWIPS 
header NFDHSFAT1 and WMO header FZNT01 KWBC.

This is the last advisory on Ian issued by the National Hurricane 
Center.  Future information on this system can be found in Public 
Advisories issued by the Weather Prediction Center beginning at 11 
AM EDT, under AWIPS header TCPAT4, WMO header WTNT34 KWNH, and on 
the web at http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov.
 
 
Key Messages:
 
1. Ongoing major to record river flooding will continue through 
next week across portions of central Florida. Limited flash, urban, 
and small stream flooding is possible across portions of the 
central Appalachians and the southern Mid-Atlantic this weekend.

2. Gusty winds are expected across portions of the central and 
southern Appalachians through this morning.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  01/0900Z 35.7N  79.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 12H  01/1800Z 36.8N  79.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 24H  02/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Berg

Post-Tropical Cyclone Ian Wind Speed Probabilities Number 35

Issued at 0900 UTC SAT OCT 01 2022                                              

000
FONT14 KNHC 010840
PWSAT4
                                                                    
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IAN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  35       
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092022               
0900 UTC SAT OCT 01 2022                                            
                                                                    
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IAN WAS LOCATED NEAR   
LATITUDE 35.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
DANVILLE VA    34  6   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
GREENSBORO NC  34  3   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
RALEIGH NC     34  3   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BERG

Post-Tropical Cyclone Ian Graphics

Post-Tropical Cyclone Ian 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 01 Oct 2022 08:41:25 GMT

Post-Tropical Cyclone Ian 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 01 Oct 2022 09:22:36 GMT



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 Pepper Ridge North Valley Random Weather Facts

SEVERE WEATHER
Most of the severe weather is seen in the Phoenix Metro area, occurs durning the Monsoon, usually associated with our summer Thunderstorms, and damage is usually caused by micro bursts--not tornadoes. A "micro burst" is a small area of rapidly descending air beneath a thunderstorm. When the descending air hits the ground, it quickly spreads out in all directions, causing very strong, straight-line winds. These winds are commonly as strong as 40-60 mph but can exceed 100 mph at times. Micro bursts occur over a rather small space-scale, typically the area affected is less than 2.5 miles in diameter.::

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