Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 121130
TWOEP 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Sat Sep 12 2026

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical 
Storm Norbert, located well west-southwest of the southern tip of 
the Baja California Peninsula.

Central and Western East Pacific (EP97):
Earlier satellite-derived winds indicate that the surface 
circulation associated with an area of low pressure located 
several hundred miles southwest of the southwestern coast of Mexico 
remains poorly defined.  Environmental conditions still appear 
conducive for development, however, and a tropical depression is 
expected to form during the next couple of days while it moves 
generally west-northwestward to westward over the central and 
western portions of the eastern Pacific basin.  For more 
information, including gale warnings, please see the High Seas 
Forecast issued by the National Weather Service. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

Well Southeast of the Hawaiian Islands:
A broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles 
southeast of Hilo, Hawaii, is producing disorganized showers and 
thunderstorms.  Development of this system is becoming less likely 
while it drifts generally west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

&&

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 
KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php

$$
Forecaster Roberts

Summary for Tropical Storm Norbert (EP4/EP142026)

...NORBERT MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE WESTERN EAST PACIFIC... As of 5:00 AM HST Sat Sep 12 the center of Norbert was located near 17.3, -128.3 with movement WNW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 999 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.

Tropical Storm Norbert Public Advisory Number 12

Issued at 500 AM HST Sat Sep 12 2026 220 
WTPZ34 KNHC 121433
TCPEP4
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Norbert Advisory Number  12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP142026
500 AM HST Sat Sep 12 2026
 
...NORBERT MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE WESTERN EAST
PACIFIC...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.3N 128.3W
ABOUT 1255 MI...2015 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
ABOUT 1760 MI...2835 KM E OF HILO HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM HST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Norbert was
located near latitude 17.3 North, longitude 128.3 West. Norbert is
moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h).  A turn 
toward the west is forecast on Sunday, and Norbert should continue 
in this direction during the next several days.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Only modest strengthening is expected through the weekend.  By 
early next week, a gradual weakening trend is expected to commence, 
and Norbert should degenerate into a post-tropical remnant low 
toward the end of next week.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM HST.
 
$$
Forecaster Roberts

Tropical Storm Norbert Forecast Advisory Number 12

Issued at 1500 UTC SAT SEP 12 2026 000
WTPZ24 KNHC 121432
TCMEP4
 
TROPICAL STORM NORBERT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP142026
1500 UTC SAT SEP 12 2026
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 128.3W AT 12/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT   9 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  50 KT WITH GUSTS TO  60 KT.
50 KT.......  0NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT....... 80NE  25SE  25SW  90NW.
4 M SEAS....150NE  30SE  90SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 128.3W AT 12/1500Z
AT 12/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 127.8W
 
FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 17.7N 129.7W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 90NE  30SE  30SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 18.1N 131.6W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 90NE  40SE  40SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 18.4N 133.7W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW  10NW.
34 KT... 80NE  40SE  30SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 18.6N 136.0W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 80NE  40SE  30SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 18.7N 138.5W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 18.6N 141.1W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 16/1200Z 17.7N 146.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 17/1200Z 15.9N 151.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.3N 128.3W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS

Tropical Storm Norbert Forecast Discussion Number 12

Issued at 500 AM HST Sat Sep 12 2026 000
WTPZ44 KNHC 121434
TCDEP4
 
Tropical Storm Norbert Discussion Number  12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP142026
500 AM HST Sat Sep 12 2026
 
This morning's conventional satellite presentation consists of an
amorphous blob of deep convection near the surface center that has
been bursting intermittently during the past several hours.  A 1132
UTC AMSR3 color composite microwave image indicated that the
surface center remains near the southern edge of the convective
mass.  The objective and subjective intensity estimates are
unchanged from 6 hours ago, and the initial intensity is set at 50
kt.

Norbert's initial motion is estimated to be west-northwestward, or 
285/9 kt, and this general motion should continue through the 
weekend.  Afterward, a subtropical ridge to the north of the 
cyclone should steer Norbert in a westward heading through most 
of next week.  There has been a shift toward the north of the 
majority of the skilled models from the previous advisory, which 
has in turn placed the forecast track in increasingly unfavorable 
environmental conditions.  Consequently, the official track 
forecast has been shifted to the right of the previous one and lies 
close to the GDMI ensemble mean and HCCA consensus aid.
 
Although Norbert has been moving over warm oceanic surface
temperatures, marginal moisture content in the low- to mid-levels
and southerly vertical shear have been suppressing the tropical 
cyclone's opportunity to strengthen significantly.  In fact, only 
the HFIP HCCA and the Google DeepMind WeatherNext 2 (GDMI) show 
some strengthening during the short term.  Through the remaining 
forecast period, because of the significant northward adjustment of 
the models, gradual weakening is expected beginning early next week, 
and Norbert should become a post-tropical remnant low early Thursday 
(day 4).  The NHC intensity forecast follows suit and has been 
adjusted downward from the previous forecast beyond the 24 hours. 
 
Norbert's 34-kt wind radii have been expanded in the north
semicircle based on a 0842 UTC OSCAT-3 scatterometer overpass.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  12/1500Z 17.3N 128.3W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  13/0000Z 17.7N 129.7W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  13/1200Z 18.1N 131.6W   55 KT  65 MPH
 36H  14/0000Z 18.4N 133.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  14/1200Z 18.6N 136.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 60H  15/0000Z 18.7N 138.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 72H  15/1200Z 18.6N 141.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
 96H  16/1200Z 17.7N 146.3W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  17/1200Z 15.9N 151.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
Forecaster Roberts

Tropical Storm Norbert Wind Speed Probabilities Number 12

Issued at 1500 UTC SAT SEP 12 2026 000
FOPZ14 KNHC 121433
PWSEP4
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM NORBERT WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  12          
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP142026               
1500 UTC SAT SEP 12 2026                                            
                                                                    
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NORBERT WAS LOCATED NEAR      
LATITUDE 17.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 128.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED   
WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
20N 135W       34  X   X( X)   2( 2)  12(14)   1(15)   X(15)   X(15)
 
20N 140W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  11(11)   1(12)   X(12)
 
20N 145W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)
 
15N 150W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
BUOY 51004     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER ROBERTS

Tropical Storm Norbert Graphics

Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 12 Sep 2026 15:23:16 GMT

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

000
ABNT20 KNHC 121127
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sat Sep 12 2026

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Berg

There are no tropical cyclones at this time.

No tropical cyclones as of Sat, 12 Sep 2026 16:30:05 GMT