Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 122335
TWOEP 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Sat Sep 12 2026

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical 
Storm Norbert, located well west-southwest of the southern tip of 
the Baja California Peninsula.

Central and Western East Pacific (EP97):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure 
located several hundred miles southwest of the southwestern coast of 
Mexico remain disorganized. Environmental conditions appear 
conducive for development, and a tropical depression is expected to 
form during the next couple of days while it moves generally 
west-northwestward to westward over the central and western portions 
of the eastern Pacific basin. For more information, including gale 
warnings, please see the High Seas Forecast issued by the National 
Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

Well Southeast of the Hawaiian Islands:
A broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles 
southeast of Hilo, Hawaii, is producing disorganized showers and 
thunderstorms.  Development of this system, if any, is expected to 
be slow to occur while it drifts generally west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

&&

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 
KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php

$$
Forecaster Gibbs

Summary for Tropical Storm Norbert (EP4/EP142026)

...NORBERT CONTINUES TO WEAKEN... ...NOW EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE WELL EAST OF HAWAII BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK... As of 5:00 PM HST Sat Sep 12 the center of Norbert was located near 17.9, -130.5 with movement W at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.

Tropical Storm Norbert Public Advisory Number 14

Issued at 500 PM HST Sat Sep 12 2026 913 
WTPZ34 KNHC 130248
TCPEP4
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Norbert Advisory Number  14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP142026
500 PM HST Sat Sep 12 2026
 
...NORBERT CONTINUES TO WEAKEN...
...NOW EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE WELL EAST OF HAWAII BY THE MIDDLE OF 
NEXT WEEK...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.9N 130.5W
ABOUT 1375 MI...2215 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
ABOUT 1610 MI...2595 KM E OF HILO HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM HST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Norbert was
located near latitude 17.9 North, longitude 130.5 West. Norbert is
moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this motion is
expected to continue during the next few days.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. 
Little change in strength is forecast during the next 24 hours, 
followed by a gradual weakening trend. Norbert is forecast to 
degenerate into a remnant low by Tuesday and dissipate by Wednesday.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM HST.
 
$$
Forecaster Pierce/Gibbs

Tropical Storm Norbert Forecast Advisory Number 14

Issued at 0300 UTC SUN SEP 13 2026 006 
WTPZ24 KNHC 130247
TCMEP4
 
TROPICAL STORM NORBERT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP142026
0300 UTC SUN SEP 13 2026
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 130.5W AT 13/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT  10 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  40 KT WITH GUSTS TO  50 KT.
34 KT....... 80NE  20SE  30SW  90NW.
4 M SEAS....135NE  45SE  75SW 135NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 130.5W AT 13/0300Z
AT 13/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 130.0W
 
FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 18.3N 132.0W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE  20SE  30SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 18.7N 134.2W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  10SE  20SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 19.1N 136.6W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE   0SE   0SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 19.3N 139.4W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 19.4N 142.0W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 19.3N 144.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 17/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.9N 130.5W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/0900Z
 
$$
FORECASTER PIERCE/GIBBS

Tropical Storm Norbert Forecast Discussion Number 14

Issued at 500 PM HST Sat Sep 12 2026 840 
WTPZ44 KNHC 130248
TCDEP4
 
Tropical Storm Norbert Discussion Number  14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP142026
500 PM HST Sat Sep 12 2026
 
Satellite imagery indicates that Norbert's convective organization 
has degraded during the past several hours. The convective mass over 
and north of the circulation center has diminished in coverage, with 
cloud-top temperatures also warming. This appears to be due, at 
least in part, to some mid-level dry air becoming entrained into the 
circulation along with some southwesterly vertical wind shear. An 
earlier scatterometer pass showed an asymmetric system with peak 
winds just above 40 kt located over the northern semicircle. The 
subjective Dvorak intensity estimate from TAFB and objective 
estimates from UW-CIMSS remain in decent agreement, ranging from 35 
to 50 kt. Given these data and the decreased organization, the 
initial intensity is lowered to 40 kt.

Norbert's initial motion is estimated to be westward, or 280/10 kt. 
The storm remains positioned south of a subtropical ridge extending 
westward from northern Mexico, which should steer Norbert on a 
general west-northwestward to westward track for the remainder of 
the forecast period. The track guidance remains in fairly good 
agreement, and the NHC track forecast is largely unchanged, 
reflecting a blend of the previous forecast and the latest 
multi-model consensus (HCCA) and Google DeepMind ensemble, which lie 
slightly north of the previous track.

The track will bring the cyclone deeper into a hostile environment 
dominated by strong westerly vertical wind shear and dry mid-level 
air. These environmental conditions will induce a steady weakening 
trend by 36 h. Model guidance unanimously reflects this hostile 
setup showing Norbert opening into a trough of low pressure east of 
Hawaii by middle portion of next week. Consequently, the updated NHC 
intensity forecast accelerates the decay timeline, degenerating 
Norbert to a remnant low by 72 h and dissipating it by 96 h.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  13/0300Z 17.9N 130.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  13/1200Z 18.3N 132.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  14/0000Z 18.7N 134.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  14/1200Z 19.1N 136.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  15/0000Z 19.3N 139.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 60H  15/1200Z 19.4N 142.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 72H  16/0000Z 19.3N 144.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  17/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Pierce/Gibbs

Tropical Storm Norbert Wind Speed Probabilities Number 14

Issued at 0300 UTC SUN SEP 13 2026 957 
FOPZ14 KNHC 130248
PWSEP4
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM NORBERT WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  14          
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP142026               
0300 UTC SUN SEP 13 2026                                            
                                                                    
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NORBERT WAS LOCATED NEAR      
LATITUDE 17.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 130.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED   
WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
20N 135W       34  X   7( 7)   7(14)   X(14)   X(14)   X(14)   X(14)
 
20N 140W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)  13(13)   8(21)   X(21)   X(21)
20N 140W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
20N 145W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  12(12)   X(12)   X(12)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER PIERCE/GIBBS

Tropical Storm Norbert Graphics

Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 13 Sep 2026 03:22:44 GMT

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

000
ABNT20 KNHC 122321
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Sat Sep 12 2026

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Papin

There are no tropical cyclones at this time.

No tropical cyclones as of Sun, 13 Sep 2026 04:52:43 GMT