Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 031717
TWOEP 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Sat Oct 3 2026

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane 
Nolo, located several hundred miles west-northwest of the main 
Hawaiian Islands, and on Hurricane Rachel, located a few hundred 
miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California 
Peninsula. 

South of Southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is forecast to form late this weekend or 
early next week south of the southern coast of Mexico. Thereafter, 
environmental conditions appear favorable for gradual development, 
and a tropical depression is likely to form during the middle to 
latter portion of next week while the system moves slowly 
west-northwestward to northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster Pierce/Hagen

Summary for Hurricane Rachel (EP3/EP182026)

...RACHEL CONTINUES MOVING SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWEST... As of 2:00 PM MST Sat Oct 03 the center of Rachel was located near 19.8, -112.5 with movement WNW at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 977 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 80 mph.

Hurricane Rachel Public Advisory Number 27

Issued at 200 PM MST Sat Oct 03 2026 610 
WTPZ33 KNHC 032053
TCPEP3
 
BULLETIN
Hurricane Rachel Advisory Number  27
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP182026
200 PM MST Sat Oct 03 2026
 
...RACHEL CONTINUES MOVING SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWEST...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 200 PM MST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.8N 112.5W
ABOUT 270 MI...435 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...977 MB...28.85 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM MST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Rachel was located
near latitude 19.8 North, longitude 112.5 West. Rachel is moving
toward the west-northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h), and this slow motion
is expected to continue through tonight. A west to west-northwest
motion is then expected Sunday through the middle of next week,
with a gradual increase in forward speed.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher 
gusts. Some weakening is forecast during the next day or so, with 
some slight restrengthening possible on Monday. 
 
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles
(240 km).
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 977 mb (28.85 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Rachel will continue to affect the coast
of west-central Mexico through the weekend and the Baja California
Peninsula through Monday. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 PM MST.
 
$$
Forecaster Pierce/Blake

Hurricane Rachel Forecast Advisory Number 27

Issued at 2100 UTC SAT OCT 03 2026 000
WTPZ23 KNHC 032052
TCMEP3
 
HURRICANE RACHEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  27
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP182026
2100 UTC SAT OCT 03 2026
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 112.5W AT 03/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT   4 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  977 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  70 KT WITH GUSTS TO  85 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE  35SE  25SW  35NW.
50 KT....... 80NE  60SE  50SW  70NW.
34 KT.......130NE 120SE 100SW 100NW.
4 M SEAS....210NE 270SE 180SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 112.5W AT 03/2100Z
AT 03/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 112.3W
 
FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 20.0N 113.2W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 35NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
50 KT... 70NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE  90SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 20.3N 114.2W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE  90SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 20.5N 115.4W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE  90SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 20.6N 116.8W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE  90SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 20.8N 118.5W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  25SE   0SW  25NW.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE  90SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 20.9N 120.1W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE  90SW 100NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 07/1800Z 21.6N 123.3W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE  90SE  80SW  90NW.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 08/1800Z 22.5N 126.4W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 90NE  80SE  70SW  70NW.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.8N 112.5W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER PIERCE/BLAKE

Hurricane Rachel Forecast Discussion Number 27

Issued at 200 PM MST Sat Oct 03 2026 000
WTPZ43 KNHC 032142 CCA
TCDEP3
 
Hurricane Rachel Discussion Number  27...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP182026
200 PM MST Sat Oct 03 2026

Corrected paragraph alignment

Satellite imagery suggests that Rachel has formed a larger eye this 
afternoon, with the inner eyewall fading away on the latest infrared 
data.  Intensity estimates have dropped slightly, and latest 
subjective Dvorak CI number from TAFB was 4.5/77 kt, but the Final 
T-number was 4.0/65 kt. This aligns well with most UW-CIMSS 
objective satellite intensity estimates, which range from 63 to 77 
kt. Based on a compromise of these data, the initial intensity is 
lowered to 70 kt.

The initial motion continues west-northwestward, or 300/4 kt. 
Rachel's slow motion over the next two days will be governed by a 
ridge extending southwestward from a mid- to upper-level high over 
the western United States. Rachel is forecast to accelerate slightly 
after 60 h, continuing on a west to west-northwestward trajectory 
through the remainder of the forecast period. The updated NHC track 
forecast is largely unchanged from the previous advisory and roughly 
follows the corrected-consensus (HCCA) aid through 120 h. 

Rachel is anticipated to gradually weaken through the next 24 h due 
to an unfavorable environment of moderate northeasterly vertical 
wind shear, dry mid-level air, and cooler sea surface temperatures 
(SSTs) associated with Hurricane Polo's cold wake. As Rachel moves 
west of the wake, environmental conditions should allow for some 
re-intensification after the weekend through 72 h. However, beyond 
72 h, Rachel will encounter an even drier air mass, with mid-level 
relative humidity values dipping below 40 percent. At the same time, 
SSTs will drop below 26 C, likely expediting the weakening trend 
through the remainder of the forecast period. The new forecast is 
very similar to the previous one. 
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  03/2100Z 19.8N 112.5W   70 KT  80 MPH
 12H  04/0600Z 20.0N 113.2W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  04/1800Z 20.3N 114.2W   60 KT  70 MPH
 36H  05/0600Z 20.5N 115.4W   60 KT  70 MPH
 48H  05/1800Z 20.6N 116.8W   65 KT  75 MPH
 60H  06/0600Z 20.8N 118.5W   70 KT  80 MPH
 72H  06/1800Z 20.9N 120.1W   70 KT  80 MPH
 96H  07/1800Z 21.6N 123.3W   60 KT  70 MPH
120H  08/1800Z 22.5N 126.4W   50 KT  60 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Pierce/Blake

Hurricane Rachel Wind Speed Probabilities Number 27

Issued at 2100 UTC SAT OCT 03 2026 497 
FOPZ13 KNHC 032053
PWSEP3
                                                                    
HURRICANE RACHEL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  27                
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP182026               
2100 UTC SAT OCT 03 2026                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RACHEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE   
19.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 112.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 
70 KTS...80 MPH...130 KM/H.                                         
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
ISLA SOCORRO   34 94   X(94)   X(94)   X(94)   X(94)   X(94)   X(94)
 
ISLA CLARION   34  2   8(10)   3(13)   1(14)   X(14)   X(14)   X(14)
 
20N 115W       34 16  48(64)  17(81)   2(83)   1(84)   X(84)   X(84)
20N 115W       50  X  16(16)  24(40)   3(43)   X(43)   X(43)   X(43)
20N 115W       64  X   3( 3)   8(11)   2(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)
 
20N 120W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  49(51)   4(55)   X(55)
20N 120W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  15(15)   5(20)   X(20)
20N 120W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)
 
25N 120W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)
 
20N 125W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   7( 8)   5(13)
 
25N 125W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   7(11)
 
20N 130W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
25N 130W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER PIERCE/BLAKE

Hurricane Rachel Graphics

Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 03 Oct 2026 21:26:57 GMT

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

000
ABNT20 KNHC 031729
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sat Oct 3 2026

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Hagen

There are no tropical cyclones at this time.

No tropical cyclones as of Sat, 03 Oct 2026 21:44:31 GMT