659
FXHW60 PHFO 250133
AFDHFO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
333 PM HST Sun May 24 2026

.SYNOPSIS...
A broad ridge north of the Hawaiian Islands will dominate our
weather for at least the next seven days, with moderate to
locally strong easterly trade winds and only subtle day to day
wind speed changes. A weak and narrow upper level trough will
remain over the region, keeping periods of trade wind showers in
the forecast. These passing showers will favor windward and
mountain areas in the overnight to early morning hours.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Radar indicates isolated mostly light showers occurring windward
and mauka this afternoon. Cloud cover runs the gamut from sunny to
overcast, with most of the clouds also windward and mauka. Winds
were on the breezy side, with sustained winds averaging 10-20 mph
and numerous gusts of 25 to 35 mph (in those areas especially
prone to stronger trade winds).

Trade winds will continue through the next week as a surface high
will remain to our north. The high will undergo some evolution
through the week, as one center is eventually replaced by another.
But we really won`t notice the difference as the result will
simply be a continuation of moderate to breezy trades, along with
typical trade wind showers. These showers will be on the light
side because moisture is rather limited. Although it is possible
that a band of moisture may move toward us later this week, the
latest guidance puts the best chance out beyond the next 7 days.

&&

.AVIATION...

Moderate to breezy trade winds will continue for the next few
days. Low ceilings and passing showers will be possible over
windward and mountain locations. Although MVFR conditions will be
possible within passing showers, VFR should prevail for most
locations.

AIRMET Sierra is in effect for tempo mountain obscuration for N
through SE sections of Kauai this afternoon due to low clouds and
passing showers. This AIRMET may be dropped later this evening as
coverage of clouds and showers lessens.

AIRMET Tango remains in effect for moderate low-level turbulence
over and downwind of island terrain. This AIRMET will likely be
needed for at least the next few days.

&&

.MARINE...
Central Pacific high pressure at all levels will greatly influence
the Hawaiian Island nearshore water forecast this week. A stable
and relatively drier environment will ensure isolated daytime
showers and overnight scattered showers as higher pockets of
moisture stream in on established trade flow. Trades will remain
moderate to fresh, locally strong through eastern island bays and
channels, in the foreseeable future.

Surf along south-facing shores will very subtly decline Monday as
a very small, medium period south swell lingers. A slightly higher
longer period south swell will arrive Tuesday, then build surf to
near early summertime averages through mid week before slowly
fading out Thursday. A large fetch of 40-plus knot winds currently
generating 25 to 30 foot seas southeast of New Zealand is aimed
toward Hawaii along southern great circle directional routes. This
should push in a significant size, long period south southwest
swell later this week. South and better exposed west-facing shore
surf will begin building Friday and may peak at or slightly above
high surf advisory levels next weekend.

North and west-facing shore surf has and will hold through Monday
in response to the latest small north northwest swell that
arrived this past Friday. A late season storm force low in the
northwest Pacific low moving just south of the Aleutian Islands
will focus its energy southeast of its easterly track. The
resultant small, medium period swell will arrive late Tuesday and
gradually fill in around the islands through Wednesday. Above
seasonal average north and west-facing shore surf is expected
Wednesday into Thursday.

East-facing exposures will still experience a short period wind
wave chop the next few days. Seas will become less rough into mid
week as trades begin to slightly ease.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Monday for Big Island
Windward Waters-Kaiwi Channel-Kauai Channel-Kauai Leeward Waters-
Kauai Northwest Waters-Kauai Windward Waters-Maui County Leeward
Waters-Maui County Windward Waters-Oahu Leeward Waters-Oahu
Windward Waters.

Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Tuesday for Alenuihaha
Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big Island Southeast Waters-
Maalaea Bay-Pailolo Channel.


&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Parker
AVIATION...Vaughan
MARINE...Blood

NWS HFO Office Area Forecast Discussion