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Welcome to Pepperridge North Valley's
Tropical Weather Page

Tropical Systems and Sea Surface Temperature Map


Sea-Surface Temperature Map

Current US Satellite Loop

Satellite loop from WeatherUnderground

 

SSEC 12 Hour to 2 Day Satellite Loops

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Space Science & Engineering Center 12 Hour Satellite Loop


Eastern Pacific Area InfraRed Terrain Map


The above images were produced by the University of Wisconsin Space Science and Engineering Center
Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies.
Animation by HAniS ©2014-2020 by Tom Whittaker -- Script by SE Lincoln Weather

Tropical Activity - Eastern Pacific



NHC Eastern North Pacific

Active tropical cyclones in the Eastern North Pacific


Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 120545
TWOEP 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Tue Aug 11 2020

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane 
Elida, located more than 400 miles west of the southern tip of the 
Baja California peninsula.

An elongated area of low pressure located about 1400 miles southwest 
of the southern tip of the Baja California continues to produce a 
broad of cloudiness and disorganized showers and thunderstorms. 
However, environmental conditions are expected to gradually become 
more conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely 
to form within the next couple of days.  The system is expected to 
move slowly westward to west-northwestward over the next several 
days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

A large area of disturbed weather associated with a trough of low 
pressure extends from just west of the Gulf of Tehuantepec 
southwestward for several hundred miles.  Environmental conditions 
appear conducive for gradual development over the next several days, 
and this system will likely become a tropical depression by late 
this week while it moves generally west-northwestward away from the 
coast of southwestern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

Another area of low pressure is expected to form in a few days over 
the far eastern portion of the basin to the south of the coast of 
Central America.  Conditions are expected to be conducive for 
development, and a tropical depression could form this weekend while 
it moves generally west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

Another area of disturbed weather is forecast to form over the far 
western portion of the eastern Pacific basin within the next couple 
of days. Some subsequent gradual development of this system is 
possible later this week while the system moves slowly westward 
toward the central Pacific basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

Hurricane for


Hurricane Elida

 

Tropical Activity - Atlantic Basin


Atlantic/Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

000
ABNT20 KNHC 120504
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Wed Aug 12 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical 
Depression Eleven, located over the central tropical Atlantic Ocean 
more than 1200 miles east of the Lesser Antilles.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected for the next five days.

&&

Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Eleven are issued under 
WMO header WTNT31 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT1.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Eleven are issued under 
WMO header WTNT21 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT1.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

Summary for Tropical Depression Eleven (AT1/AL112020)

...DEPRESSION FORECAST TO GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN...
 As of 11:00 PM AST Tue Aug 11
 the center of Eleven was located near 12.0, -41.5
 with movement W at 14 mph.
 The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb
 with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Tropical Depression Eleven Public Advisory Number 2

Issued at 1100 PM AST Tue Aug 11 2020  

000
WTNT31 KNHC 120232
TCPAT1
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Eleven Advisory Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL112020
1100 PM AST Tue Aug 11 2020
 
...DEPRESSION FORECAST TO GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.0N 41.5W
ABOUT 1205 MI...1940 KM W OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
ABOUT 1350 MI...2170 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eleven
was located near latitude 12.0 North, longitude 41.5 West. The
depression is moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue through Wednesday.  A
west-northwestward motion at a similar forward speed is forecast to
begin Wednesday night and continue through the rest of the week.
 
Maximum sustained winds remain near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher 
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and 
the depression is expected to become a tropical storm by Wednesday
night.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.
 
$$
Forecaster Blake

Tropical Depression Eleven Forecast Advisory Number 2

Issued at 0300 UTC WED AUG 12 2020  

000
WTNT21 KNHC 120231
TCMAT1
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL112020
0300 UTC WED AUG 12 2020
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.0N  41.5W AT 12/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT  12 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.0N  41.5W AT 12/0300Z
AT 12/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.9N  40.9W
 
FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 12.3N  43.4W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 12.8N  45.9W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 13.5N  48.3W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  20SE   0SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 14.5N  50.8W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 15.7N  53.3W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 50NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 17.0N  55.7W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 16/0000Z 19.5N  60.5W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 17/0000Z 22.0N  65.0W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.0N  41.5W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/0900Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

Tropical Depression Eleven Forecast Discussion Number 2

Issued at 1100 PM AST Tue Aug 11 2020  

913 
WTNT41 KNHC 120233
TCDAT1
 
Tropical Depression Eleven Discussion Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL112020
1100 PM AST Tue Aug 11 2020
 
After weakening in the early evening hours, deep convection has 
returned to the western semicircle of the tropical cyclone.  While 
this is quite a strong burst, it appears that the convective 
pattern is indicative of the shear it is encountering, rather than 
any strengthening.  This is confirmed by ASCAT-B data from a few 
hours ago, which supported maintaining an initial wind speed of 30 
kt. 

By this time tomorrow, the depression is forecast to become a 
tropical storm due to decreasing vertical wind shear, and this 
environmental change should also keep some of the surrounding 
mid-level dry air from mixing near the center.  Gradually warming 
SSTs and relatively low shear conditions suggest further 
intensification through about 2-3 days.  Thereafter, increasing 
southwesterly shear while the small cyclone moves through fairly dry 
air aloft is forecast to cause a weakening trend, and it wouldn't 
be surprising if the cyclone even degenerates to a trough by day 5 
as it traverses the hostile environment.  The new NHC wind speed 
prediction is near but slightly higher than the previous advisory 
through 60h, similar afterwards, and lies near the NOAA 
corrected-consensus mean.  
 
The depression continues moving westward, or 280/12 kt, to the 
south of a large mid-tropospheric high centered over the central 
Atlantic. A break developing in the ridge should steer the 
depression more west-northwestward from 36 hours until the end of 
the forecast period. For a second advisory, the track models are in 
remarkably good agreement, and the forecast is near or northeast of 
the model consensus.  The HWRF solution that takes the cyclone near 
the Leeward Islands is considering less likely at this time, hence 
the official forecast is shaded toward the other model solutions.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  12/0300Z 12.0N  41.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  12/1200Z 12.3N  43.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  13/0000Z 12.8N  45.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  13/1200Z 13.5N  48.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  14/0000Z 14.5N  50.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
 60H  14/1200Z 15.7N  53.3W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  15/0000Z 17.0N  55.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
 96H  16/0000Z 19.5N  60.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
120H  17/0000Z 22.0N  65.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Blake

Tropical Depression Eleven Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2

Issued at 0300 UTC WED AUG 12 2020                                              

000
FONT11 KNHC 120232
PWSAT1
                                                                    
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   2      
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL112020               
0300 UTC WED AUG 12 2020                                            
                                                                    
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN WAS LOCATED NEAR  
LATITUDE 12.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 41.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
SAINT THOMAS   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
SAINT MAARTEN  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)
 
SABA           34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)
 
ST EUSTATIUS   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)
 
ST KITTS-NEVIS 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
 
BARBUDA        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   2( 6)
 
ANTIGUA        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BLAKE

Tropical Depression Eleven Graphics

Tropical Depression Eleven 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 12 Aug 2020 02:33:29 GMT

Tropical Depression Eleven 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 12 Aug 2020 03:24:56 GMT



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 Pepper Ridge North Valley Random Weather Facts

THERMAL LOW (Heat Low)
During the summer the intense Arizona heat causes the formation of a thermal low (heat low), this thermal low usually forms near Yuma. It is usually formed by the intense thermal updrafts and rapidly rising air that cause lower Barometric pressure levels whichs leads to the formation of a surface low pressure area. This feature can enhance the moisture levels during the monsoon by pulling in low level moisture from Baja California.

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