Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 031726
TWOEP 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Wed Jun 3 2026

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently 
upgraded Tropical Storm Amanda, located well southwest of the 
southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula.

Eastern East Pacific:
An area of low pressure is forecast to form offshore of Central 
America and southern Mexico late this week. Environmental conditions 
appear conducive for development of this system thereafter, and a 
tropical depression could form late this weekend or early next week 
while it moves slowly northwestward or northward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

Offshore Southern and Southwestern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is forecast to form offshore of southern and 
southwestern Mexico early next week. Environmental conditions could 
allow for some gradual development of this system thereafter while 
it slowly moves generally northward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

&&

Public advisories on Tropical Storm Amanda are issued under WMO 
header WTPZ31 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP1. 
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Amanda are issued under 
WMO header WTPZ21 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP1.

$$
Forecaster Kelly

Summary for Tropical Storm Amanda (EP1/EP012026)

...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO THE FIRST TROPICAL STORM OF THE 2026 EASTERN PACIFIC HURRICANE SEASON... As of 8:00 AM PDT Wed Jun 03 the center of Amanda was located near 10.6, -128.2 with movement NW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

Tropical Storm Amanda Public Advisory Number 4

Issued at 800 AM PDT Wed Jun 03 2026 000
WTPZ31 KNHC 031453
TCPEP1
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Amanda Advisory Number   4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP012026
800 AM PDT Wed Jun 03 2026
 
...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO THE FIRST TROPICAL STORM OF THE 2026 
EASTERN PACIFIC HURRICANE SEASON... 
 
SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.6N 128.2W
ABOUT 1475 MI...2375 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Amanda was 
located near latitude 10.6 North, longitude 128.2 West. Amanda is 
moving toward the northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h) and this motion is 
expected to continue through Friday. A turn toward the west and 
west-southwest at a slower forward motion is forecast this weekend. 
 
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with 
higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next 
couple of days. A weakening trend is forecast later this weekend.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Kelly/Adams

Tropical Storm Amanda Forecast Advisory Number 4

Issued at 1500 UTC WED JUN 03 2026 000
WTPZ21 KNHC 031451
TCMEP1
 
TROPICAL STORM AMANDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP012026
1500 UTC WED JUN 03 2026
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.6N 128.2W AT 03/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT   7 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT....... 50NE   0SE   0SW  50NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.6N 128.2W AT 03/1500Z
AT 03/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.4N 127.9W
 
FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 11.2N 129.0W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE   0SE   0SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 12.1N 130.2W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 60NE  20SE  10SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 12.9N 131.4W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 60NE  20SE  20SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 13.5N 132.7W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 50NE  20SE  20SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 13.6N 133.5W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  20SE  20SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 13.4N 134.1W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  20SE  30SW  50NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 07/1200Z 12.9N 134.9W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 08/1200Z 12.2N 135.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 10.6N 128.2W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER KELLY/ADAMS

Tropical Storm Amanda Forecast Discussion Number 4

Issued at 800 AM PDT Wed Jun 03 2026 000
WTPZ41 KNHC 031454
TCDEP1
 
Tropical Storm Amanda Discussion Number   4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP012026
800 AM PDT Wed Jun 03 2026

Deep convection has been increasing near and to the west of the 
low-level center of the system over the past 6-12 hours. Objective 
Dvorak satellite intensity estimates from UW-CIMSS are around 35 
kt. Using these estimates and the latest satellite trends, the 
depression has been upgraded to Tropical Storm Amanda with the 
initial intensity set to 35 kt.

Amanda is moving a little faster to the northwest with an initial 
motion of 305/7 kt. The system is flanked by a mid-level ridge to 
the northeast and an upper-level low to the northwest, supporting a 
northwestward to west-northwestward motion through Friday. A turn 
toward the west then west-southwest with a slower forward motion is 
expected by this weekend as the ridge strengthens. The official 
forecast is similar to the previous in the short term, but has been 
nudged slightly farther south from the previous beyond Day 3, lying 
between the Google DeepMind and various consensus aids. 

The storm has shown increasing organized convection this morning, 
and is embedded within a sufficiently saturated low- and mid-level 
environment. All model guidance supports steady strengthening over 
the next 36 h or so. It is noted that GFS and EC SHIPS RI model 
guidance are showing a 20 to 30 percent chance of rapid 
intensification during the next 24 to 36 h. The official NHC 
forecast maintains a peak intensity of 55 kt, which lies near the 
higher end of the model guidance. After 36-48 h, Amanda will move 
into a less-favorable environment with increasing shear and a drier 
mid-level airmass, supporting steady weakening through this weekend. 
Towards the end of the forecast period, the system will begin to 
struggle to produce convection. The official forecast now has the 
system becoming a post-tropical remnant low at Day 5, although some 
models suggest this could occur sooner than forecast.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  03/1500Z 10.6N 128.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  04/0000Z 11.2N 129.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  04/1200Z 12.1N 130.2W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  05/0000Z 12.9N 131.4W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  05/1200Z 13.5N 132.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
 60H  06/0000Z 13.6N 133.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  06/1200Z 13.4N 134.1W   40 KT  45 MPH
 96H  07/1200Z 12.9N 134.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
120H  08/1200Z 12.2N 135.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
Forecaster Kelly/Adams

Tropical Storm Amanda Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4

Issued at 1500 UTC WED JUN 03 2026 000
FOPZ11 KNHC 031453
PWSEP1
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM AMANDA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   4           
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP012026               
1500 UTC WED JUN 03 2026                                            
                                                                    
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM AMANDA WAS LOCATED NEAR       
LATITUDE 10.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 128.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED   
WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
10N 130W       34  3   4( 7)   2( 9)   1(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)
 
15N 130W       34  X   4( 4)   9(13)   1(14)   2(16)   X(16)   X(16)
 
10N 135W       34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   2( 4)   1( 5)   1( 6)
 
15N 135W       34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   6( 8)  13(21)   3(24)   1(25)
15N 135W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER KELLY/ADAMS

Tropical Storm Amanda Graphics

Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 03 Jun 2026 15:21:54 GMT

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

000
ABNT20 KNHC 031723
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Wed Jun 3 2026

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

There are no tropical cyclones at this time.

No tropical cyclones as of Wed, 03 Jun 2026 19:15:07 GMT