Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 232323
TWOEP 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Sun Aug 23 2026

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical 
Storm Lala, located well north of the Papahanaumokuakea Marine 
National Monument, on Tropical Storm Moke, located a few hundred 
miles south of Hilo, Hawaii, and on Tropical Storm Iselle, located 
several hundred miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the 
Baja California Peninsula.

Central East Pacific (EP91):
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms are persisting with a broad 
area of low pressure located well to the south-southwest of the 
southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula. Environmental 
conditions could support the development of a short-lived tropical 
depression during the next day or so before it becomes absorbed by 
Tropical Storm Iselle.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

Well Southwest of Southwestern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is expected to develop well south of the 
southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula toward the middle 
portion of the week. Some slow development is expected thereafter, 
and a tropical depression is likely to form later this week or over 
the weekend while the system moves generally west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

Well Offshore Southern Mexico:
Another area of low pressure could form well offshore of Central 
America late this week. Environmental conditions appear favorable 
for gradual development over the weekend as the system moves 
westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph well offshore of 
southern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

&&

Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Iselle are issued under WMO 
header WTPZ34 NHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP4.  
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Iselle are issued under WMO 
header WTPZ24 and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP4.

$$
Forecaster Katz/Cangialosi

Summary for Tropical Storm Iselle (EP4/EP092026)

...ISELLE CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD WELL OFFSHORE OF MEXICO... As of 8:00 PM PDT Sun Aug 23 the center of Iselle was located near 17.1, -115.3 with movement NW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 999 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

Tropical Storm Iselle Public Advisory Number 3

Issued at 800 PM PDT Sun Aug 23 2026 013 
WTPZ34 KNHC 240244
TCPEP4
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Iselle Advisory Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP092026
800 PM PDT Sun Aug 23 2026
 
...ISELLE CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD WELL OFFSHORE OF
MEXICO...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.1N 115.3W
ABOUT 530 MI...855 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Iselle was
located near latitude 17.1 North, longitude 115.3 West. Iselle is
moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h) and this motion is
expected to continue through Monday, followed by a gradual turn
toward the west-northwest on Tuesday.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast during the next day or two, and
Iselle could become a strong tropical storm Monday night or early
Tuesday.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km)
from the center.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Iselle will affect the west coast of the
Baja California Peninsula beginning Monday.  These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Katz/Cangialosi

Tropical Storm Iselle Forecast Advisory Number 3

Issued at 0300 UTC MON AUG 24 2026 135 
WTPZ24 KNHC 240243
TCMEP4
 
TROPICAL STORM ISELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092026
0300 UTC MON AUG 24 2026
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 115.3W AT 24/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  40 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT  10 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  45 KT WITH GUSTS TO  55 KT.
34 KT.......100NE 100SE 110SW   0NW.
4 M SEAS....210NE 150SE  75SW  90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 115.3W AT 24/0300Z
AT 24/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 114.9W
 
FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 18.1N 116.4W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 25NE  20SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE  90SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 19.4N 117.8W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...110NE 130SE  90SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 20.4N 119.6W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE  80SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 21.0N 121.4W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE   0SW  40NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE  60SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 21.5N 123.1W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT... 80NE  60SE  40SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 21.9N 125.1W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT... 80NE  30SE  30SW  60NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 28/0000Z 22.8N 128.8W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW  40NW.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 29/0000Z 23.6N 132.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.1N 115.3W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0900Z
 
$$
FORECASTER KATZ/CANGIALOSI

Tropical Storm Iselle Forecast Discussion Number 3

Issued at 800 PM PDT Sun Aug 23 2026 000
WTPZ44 KNHC 240245
TCDEP4
 
Tropical Storm Iselle Discussion Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP092026
800 PM PDT Sun Aug 23 2026
 
The most recent ASCAT and OSCAT passes have shown that the strongest 
winds with Iselle are around 40 to 45 kt. UW-CIMSS objective 
estimates are in the 35-55 kt range, and the most recent TAFB 
subjective Dvorak estimate is T3.0/45 kt. With all of that data in 
consideration, the intensity has been held at 45 kt for this 
advisory. However, recent observations at Isla Clarion have recorded 
sustained winds around 30 to 35 kt, gusting up to around 40 kt and 
a surface pressure of 1002 mb. Thus in light of that data, the 
central pressure for Iselle has been lowered to 999 mb.
 
The initial motion estimate is northwestward, or 310 degrees at 8 
kt.  A continued northwestward motion is expected through Monday 
while Iselle is steered by ridging over the southwestern United 
States and northwestern Mexico. As the ridge builds in some more to 
the north of the cyclone, a gradual turn toward the west-northwest 
is expected on Tuesday and Wednesday.  The current NHC track is very 
similar to the previous track, only minor adjustments in speed and 
location have been made. The track remains very close to the lastest 
HFIP Corrected Consensus (HCCA) model and the Google DeepMind 
(GDMI). There is a good amount of spread in the track forecast 
towards the later portion of the forecast, thus the confidence is 
slightly below average.
 
Iselle will be traveling over warm water and within a moist 
environment with weak to moderate vertical wind shear for the next 
day or so, but westerly vertical wind shear should increase to the 
15-20 kt range by Tuesday or sooner.  Strengthening is expected for 
the next 36 h. The current NHC intensity forecast is on the higher 
end of the guidance, thus it is possible that Iselle might not quite 
make it to hurricane status. After this period, the cyclone will 
move into a more hostile environment with stronger shear, colder 
sea-surface temperatures, and some slightly drier air. As such, the 
storm should progressively get weaker beyond a couple of days. 
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  24/0300Z 17.1N 115.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  24/1200Z 18.1N 116.4W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  25/0000Z 19.4N 117.8W   60 KT  70 MPH
 36H  25/1200Z 20.4N 119.6W   65 KT  75 MPH
 48H  26/0000Z 21.0N 121.4W   60 KT  70 MPH
 60H  26/1200Z 21.5N 123.1W   55 KT  65 MPH
 72H  27/0000Z 21.9N 125.1W   50 KT  60 MPH
 96H  28/0000Z 22.8N 128.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
120H  29/0000Z 23.6N 132.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
Forecaster Katz/Cangialosi

Tropical Storm Iselle Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3

Issued at 0300 UTC MON AUG 24 2026 000
FOPZ14 KNHC 240244
PWSEP4
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM ISELLE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   3           
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092026               
0300 UTC MON AUG 24 2026                                            
                                                                    
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ISELLE WAS LOCATED NEAR       
LATITUDE 17.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 115.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED   
WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
ISLA CLARION   34 62   X(62)   X(62)   X(62)   X(62)   X(62)   X(62)
 
20N 115W       34  3   6( 9)   1(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)
 
20N 120W       34  X   6( 6)  58(64)   6(70)   1(71)   X(71)   X(71)
20N 120W       50  X   X( X)  20(20)   9(29)   1(30)   X(30)   X(30)
20N 120W       64  X   X( X)   6( 6)   5(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)
 
20N 125W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
25N 130W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   5( 8)
 
25N 135W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER KATZ/CANGIALOSI

Tropical Storm Iselle Graphics

Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 24 Aug 2026 03:34:22 GMT

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

000
ABNT20 KNHC 232327
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Central Subtropical Atlantic (AL95):
Showers and thunderstorms are slowly getting better organized in 
association with a low pressure area centered about 400 miles 
southeast of Bermuda. Further development of the low is possible, 
and this system could become a short-lived tropical depression or 
storm during the next couple of days while it moves northward and 
north-northeastward, well northeast of Bermuda.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave is expected to move off the west coast of Africa on 
Monday, and an area of low pressure could form in association with 
the wave early this week. Environmental conditions are forecast to 
be marginally conducive for development, and a tropical depression 
could form by the middle to latter portions of the week while the 
system moves generally westward at 15 to 20 mph across the eastern 
and central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven

There are no tropical cyclones at this time.

No tropical cyclones as of Mon, 24 Aug 2026 03:55:13 GMT