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SUNRISE MTN RIDGE'S
7 DAY DETAIL FORECAST FOR TUCSON FOOTHILLS, AZ.

National Weather Service Forecast for: 7 Miles NNE Tucson AZ
Issued by: National Weather Service Tucson, AZ
Updated: 2:25 pm MST Sep 19, 2019

Sunrise Mtn Ridge Tucson Az
 
Overnight

Overnight: Clear, with a low around 68. Calm wind.
Clear

Friday

Friday: Sunny, with a high near 97. Calm wind becoming southwest 5 to 9 mph in the morning.
Sunny

Friday
Night
Friday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 66. West wind around 6 mph becoming calm  in the evening.
Mostly Clear

Saturday

Saturday: Sunny, with a high near 94. Calm wind becoming west around 6 mph in the afternoon.
Sunny

Saturday
Night
Saturday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 66. Light and variable wind.
Partly Cloudy

Sunday

Sunday: Isolated showers and thunderstorms after 11am.  Mostly sunny, with a high near 94. Chance of precipitation is 10%.
Isolated
T-storms

Sunday
Night
Sunday Night: Scattered showers and thunderstorms.  Mostly cloudy, with a low around 69. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Scattered
T-storms then
Scattered
Showers
Monday

Monday: Scattered showers and thunderstorms.  Mostly cloudy, with a high near 90. Chance of precipitation is 50%.
Scattered
T-storms

Monday
Night
Monday Night: Scattered showers and thunderstorms.  Mostly cloudy, with a low around 67. Chance of precipitation is 50%.
Scattered
T-storms


Lo 68 °F

Hi 97 °F

Lo 66 °F

Hi 94 °F

Lo 66 °F

Hi 94 °F

Lo 69 °F

Hi 90 °F

Lo 67 °F


 

Overnight
 
Clear, with a low around 68. Calm wind.
Friday
 
Sunny, with a high near 97. Calm wind becoming southwest 5 to 9 mph in the morning.
Friday Night
 
Mostly clear, with a low around 66. West wind around 6 mph becoming calm in the evening.
Saturday
 
Sunny, with a high near 94. Calm wind becoming west around 6 mph in the afternoon.
Saturday Night
 
Partly cloudy, with a low around 66. Light and variable wind.
Sunday
 
Isolated showers and thunderstorms after 11am. Mostly sunny, with a high near 94. Chance of precipitation is 10%.
Sunday Night
 
Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 69. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Monday
 
Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 90. Chance of precipitation is 50%.
Monday Night
 
Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 67. Chance of precipitation is 50%.
Tuesday
 
Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, with a high near 89. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
Tuesday Night
 
Isolated showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with a low around 65. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
Wednesday
 
Isolated showers and thunderstorms. Mostly sunny, with a high near 91. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
Wednesday Night
 
Isolated showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with a low around 65. Chance of precipitation is 10%.
Thursday
 
Mostly sunny, with a high near 92.

 

Forecast from NOAA-NWS for 7 Miles NNE Tucson AZ.




Tucson, Az - Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion for TWC NWS Office
095
FXUS65 KTWC 192231
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
331 PM MST Thu Sep 19 2019

.SYNOPSIS...Southeast Arizona will see a slight chance of afternoon
thunderstorms mainly near the mountains east and south of Tucson
today, along with normal temperatures. Tropical moisture will
push toward the area over the weekend with shower and thunderstorm
chances as early as Saturday evening. A weather system moving
through the area Monday and Tuesday could put this moisture to
good use with increasing rain chances.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A trough pushing through the region will bring drier
air and a few degrees of cooling Friday and Saturday. Big changes
after that. Deep moisture will push toward Arizona from the south
as Lorena and Mario (currently south of Baja) move northward. As
this happens, a Pacific low will dig toward Arizona from the
northwest early in the week. This has the potential for both heavy
rainfall and strong thunderstorm activity.

Lorena is moving quickly northwest away from the west coast of
Mexico and toward the tip of Baja. If she hasen`t already regained
hurricane status then she will soon, with early signs of
additional organization on satellite and microwave imagery.
Immediately to her southwest, Mario is struggling with an area of
upper level shear and showing signs of poor organization with poor
symmetry and partial exposure of the center. As per NHC, it`s
starting to look like Lorena will continue a stronger push north-
northwest and may keep separation from Mario.

At any rate, moisture is piling up near the southern Gulf of
California with over 2.5 inches precipitable water showing up on
GOES East estimates several hours ago before cloud cover moved in.
Some of that will push northward toward our area over the next 72
hours with a strong moisture increase still expected to begin by
late Saturday into early Sunday. NAEFS mean specific humidity is
calling for levels near the 98th percentile below 700mb pushing
over the border Sunday, suggesting a moderate to strong surge of
moisture from the south. We probably won`t see 2 inch precipitable
water values past the mid Gulf, but by Monday something on the
order of 1.2 inches in far eastern areas to as much as 1.75 inches
in far western areas. Something like 1.3 to 1.5 inches for Tucson.

The next part of the equation is the trough developing over the
region Monday and Tuesday. A low spinning into the base of the
trough will help drive the weather the first half of the new week,
with a more southerly and slower trajectory bringing better
chances of heavy rainfall as well as the dynamics for strong
thunderstorms. If it`s further north and more progressive, then
that limits the window for significant weather this far south. At
this point we will continue to use ensembles and ensemble means.
Essentially that gives us 2 or 3 days of more active monsoon days,
with better potential for nocturnal activity with the low nearby.
Storm total QPF amounts between 1/4 and 1 inch in valleys and 1 to
3+ inches in mountains, with valid arguments for both more and
less.

A westerly flow the second half of the week will push the moisture
back out of the picture.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 21/00Z.
A slight chance of -TSRA/-SHRA til 20/04z mainly southeast of a KOLS
to KSAD line. Otherwise, FEW-SCT clouds (locally BKN) at 8k-12k ft
MSL. Wind gusts near TSRA to 35 knots. SFC wind less than 12 kts
thru 20/18Z, with SFC wind direction favoring a SWLY/WLY component
thru 20/03Z and then variable in direction. Aft 20/18Z, SFC wind
generally 10-15 kts and favoring a SWLY/WLY direction. Aviation
discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...There will be a slight chance of showers and
thunderstorms through this evening mainly east and south of Tucson.
Dry conditions are expected Friday and Saturday. A chance of showers
and thunderstorms then returns Sunday through early next week as
deep moisture moves northward from Mexico into southern Arizona.
Seasonably warm daytime temperatures will occur through Saturday,
with below normal readings Sunday into the middle of next week.
Aside from any thunderstorm wind gusts, 20-foot winds will
generally be terrain driven and less than 15 mph.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Meyer/Zell

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NWS TWC Office Area Forecast Discussion




Local Weather Statements, Watches And Warnings

There are no active watches, warnings or advisories for zone AZZ504.

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