FXUS65 KTWC 252055
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
155 PM MST Sat Jan 25 2020
.SYNOPSIS...High pressure will bring warmer and dry conditions
through the weekend. A pair of weather systems will push
temperatures back down to average for late January most of next
week, along with a few showers mainly near the mountains Monday
.DISCUSSION...High pressure over the Desert Southwest will result in
another day of above normal daytime temperatures on Sunday.
Thereafter, a couple of weather systems forecast to track through
the region next week will lower daytime temperatures back to
seasonable readings starting Monday.
The most recent model solutions were in good agreement with the
first system passing mainly north of the area Sunday night and
Monday. The bulk of the moisture associated with this system will
likely remain to the north, but cannot rule out a few showers in the
White Mountains of east-central Arizona on Monday.
The second system forecast to impact the area Wednesday into
Thursday will bring a better chance of precipitation and cooler
temperatures. However, there was still a lot of uncertainty with the
track of this system as the operational solution of the ECMWF model
was farther south than the GEFS mean and the WPC derived clusters.
For now, will lean toward the GEFS mean on the afternoon forecast
.AVIATION...Valid through 27/12Z.
SKC-SCT clouds mainly at and above 25k ft MSL through the forecast
period. Surface winds mainly NWLY this afternoon around 5-10 kts,
becoming variable less than 10 kts overnight into Sunday morning
before WLY/NWLY winds return after 26/18Z. Aviation discussion not
updated for TAF amendments.
.FIRE WEATHER...Dry conditions will prevail across southeast
Arizona through Sunday. A fast moving weather system will then clip
the area Monday resulting in isolated showers across the White
Mountains extending southward along the Arizona/New Mexico border.
This system will also result in some increased westerly to
northwesterly 20-foot winds with gusts in excess of 20 mph possible
east of Tucson Monday afternoon. Dry conditions briefly return area-
wide Tuesday before another weather system moving in from the north
will result in isolated showers mainly east of Tucson Wednesday into
Thursday. With the exception of the aforementioned breezes Monday,
20-foot winds will generally be less than 15 mph.
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