There are no active watches, warnings or advisories for zone AZZ504.
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Forecast from NOAA-NWS for 7 Miles NNE Tucson AZ. |
000 FXUS65 KTWC 192156 AFDTWC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tucson AZ 256 PM MST Tue Jan 19 2021 .SYNOPSIS...A cooler and wetter weather pattern will bring periods of elevated valley rain and mountain snow chances later Wednesday into the early next week. Highest rain chances for Southeast Arizona will be later Wednesday into Thursday. Best period for mountain snow will be a pair of systems over the weekend and early next week. Also expect gusty winds at times. && .DISCUSSION...A strong low has dropped into a position near and offshore of northern Baja to our west. This system will spend the next 36 hours tapping into a deep moisture fetch before filling and lifting through the state on Thursday. Virga with a mid level moisture increase will keep working on moistening things up with upslope influences ahead of the low as early as Wednesday bringing increasing rain chances. Our best rainfall period will be just ahead of and with the system late Wednesday into Thursday, with 00Z to 15Z Thursday prime time. Snow levels will remain above 8000 feet through most of Thursday (starting out over 9000 feet), with most precip expected to fall as rain in the mountains. 1/4 to 1 inch in valleys with over 2 inches in mountains, isolated higher amounts possible in some mountain locations. Considering latest trajectories, we may see higher amounts near the international border as well. Our high amplitude pattern will continue with ensembles keeping low height anomalies well into next week. Another system will dig into the area over the weekend, this one should be cooler but have less time to pick up as much moisture. Snow levels as low as 5500 feet or so on Sunday. An even stronger and cooler system is possible for next Tuesday or Wednesday. We may keep a solid split in the eastern Pacific to finish the month with an active pattern. && .AVIATION...Valid through 21/00Z. BKN-OVC clouds at 11k-15k ft MSL, lowering aft 20/06Z to 7k-11k ft MSL. Slight chance of -SHRA aft 20/01Z, then more widespread valley -SHRA/mountain top -SHSN developing Wednesday afternoon into Thursday. MVFR conditions and (and local IFR conditions) are expected at that time. Otherwise, SFC winds SELY 15-25 kts with higher gusts gradually diminishing aft 20/06Z to 10-15 kts. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments. && .FIRE WEATHER....Generally dry this afternoon with some localized elevated fire weather conditions. 20-foot winds speeds of 15-25 mph and gusts to 35-40 mph will gradually diminish this evening. A storm system will then move into the region on Wednesday and across the state on Thursday. This will result in cooler temperatures, higher humidity levels and widespread valley rain and high elevation mountain snow, generally above 8,000 feet. The highest precipitation chances will be Wednesday afternoon through Thursday. Another colder system moves in over the upcoming weekend, for a continued chance of valley rain and much lower snow levels. Also expect breezy winds Saturday into Monday with this second storm system. && .TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ Public...Meyer Aviation...Lader Fire Weather....Lader Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson |
There are no active watches, warnings or advisories for zone AZZ504.
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Page Last Updated Apr 6th, 2015
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