FXUS65 KTWC 100917
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
217 AM MST Mon Dec 10 2018
.SYNOPSIS...Expect dry conditions through Friday. A slight chance
of snow showers then exists mainly across the White Mountains
Saturday and Saturday night. Above normal daytime temperatures
Monday and Tuesday followed by some cooling Wednesday. Warmer
temperatures to return by Friday.
.DISCUSSION...High clouds will be increasing from west to east
across the area this morning and hang around through Tuesday
night. Highs today will be a few degrees warmer than Sunday as
upper ridge axis passes across the state. At the surface gusty
east winds will be around through this afternoon.
Upper level trof will move across the area late Tuesday into
Wednesday. This system will be dry for the area as it passes
through. The southern end of this trof across Sonora Mexico may
briefly close off Wednesday morning and produce a few showers
just south of Cochise county. Confidence is low with this
Gusty NW winds Wednesday afternoon, especially east of Tucson, as
upper trof moves through 4-corners. Cooler Wednesday and Thursday
then warming up at the end of the week as upper ridge builds over
Models suggesting a slight chance of showers on Saturday as an
upper level trof approaches the area from the southwest.
.AVIATION...Valid through 11/12Z.
BKN clouds above 18k ft AGL thru period. ESE/SE surface winds
will gradually increase for favored locations into this morning.
KTUS should see sustained winds of 12 to 18 kts, with gusts around
25-30 kts, peaking in the late morning hours and then diminishing
Monday afternoon. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF
.FIRE WEATHER...Dry conditions to prevail across southeast Arizona
this week. Gusty east to southeast 20-foot winds of 15 mph to 20
mph, with gusts around 35 mph for favored wind prone locations
into this afternoon. Occasionally gusty west to northwest winds
should also occur Wednesday afternoon especially east of Tucson.
20-foot winds will be terrain driven mainly under 15 mph at other
Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson