440
FXHW60 PHFO 142020
AFDHFO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
1020 AM HST Tue Jul 14 2026

.SYNOPSIS...
Locally breezy trade winds will weaken to moderate levels today
and Wednesday, then strengthen Thursday into the weekend. Showers
will continue to favor windward and mauka areas, with showers more
common today and Wednesday compared to later in the week or this
coming weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM UPDATE...
With this mid-morning update, clouds and showers are still
favoring Kauai and Oahu as a batch of moisture rides in on the
trades. Looking upstream, this activity will likely continue for
the next couple of hours. Drier air will continue to move across
the eastern half of the state through the early afternoon, but
some clusters of clouds and showers seen upstream on satellite
imagery will likely move into the windward areas of the Big Island
and Maui by sometime this late afternoon or evening. This
morning`s forecast remains on track, so no changes were made with
this update.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 240 AM HST Tue Jul 14 2026
Radar and satellite show showers and clouds increasing as of 3 AM
HST as an area of increasing moisture moves into the state. Winds
continue to decrease in speed, and this trend is expected to
continue through Wednesday.

A large surface high to the north will help keep trade winds
blowing for the coming week, but wind speeds will decrease today
through Wednesday before increasing again Thursday and remaining
moderate into the weekend. Showers will increase today (as we are
already seeing this morning), tonight, and Wednesday before drier
air moves in and reduces showers from Thursday onward. As is
typical for trade winds, the majority of showers will be windward
and mauka.

Models have been consistently showing an increase in potential
tropical systems in the central and eastern Pacific in the next
couple of weeks, but so far no storms appear headed toward the
state. However, with El Nino picking up steam and now forecast to
reach record or near-record strength, now would be a great time to
make sure you are prepared in case that changes.

&&

.AVIATION...
Trades will weaken slightly and veer out of a more easterly
direction through tonight. Downstream radar and satellite imagery
suggest that a band of moisture will focus more widespread showers
over Kauai and Oahu today into tonight with periods of MVFR
conditions likely. Showers will primarily impact windward areas,
with some spillover into leeward sites possible. Otherwise and
elsewhere, VFR is broadly anticipated with scattered windward
showers.

AIRMET Sierra is currently in effect for mountain obscuration
over north through east facing portions of Oahu due to widespread
low clouds and showers. This AIRMET may need to be expanded to
include Kauai later this morning.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 240 AM HST Tue Jul 14 2026
Trade winds will gradually ease today as the high pressure north
of the islands lifts northeast and weakens. The Small Craft
Advisory (SCA) has been cancelled as winds have dropped below
criteria. These lighter trades should continue through Wednesday
night, then may increase a bit Thursday and Friday as high
pressure northeast of the islands drops a bit further south and
tightens up the local pressure gradient.

The current small, long-period southwest swell will gradually
decline through the middle of the week. A series of overlapping
small south and southwest swell should produce some rideable surf
through next weekend, with perhaps a more sizable south swell
moving in early next week.

Surf along east-facing shores will steadily decline through
Wednesday. Surf will then hold steady at slightly below seasonal
averages along east facing shores through the weekend.

A series of small, long to medium period west to west-northwest
swells generated by former Super Typhoon Bavi will be possible
throughout the rest of the week. Otherwise, no significant north
or northwest swells are expected, so surf along north-facing
shores is expected to remain flat to tiny.

Peak monthly high tides combined with water levels that are
running slightly higher than predicted will lead to minor flooding
along the shoreline and in low-lying coastal areas. Coastal
flooding is possible around the daily peak tide, which will be
during the afternoon hours. A Coastal Flood Statement remains in
effect through 6 PM this evening.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM UPDATE...Farris
DISCUSSION...Parker
AVIATION...TS
MARINE...Walsh

NWS HFO Office Area Forecast Discussion